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Participant grades, Spherical Two
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All of it occurred so quick. 2 weeks in the past the Edmonton Oilers entered their second spherical sequence at Vegas Golden Knights on high of their recreation, having misplaced simply 3 of their prior 21 contests. All of these defeats got here in additional time, which means it had been 53 days because the Oilers had final dropped a recreation in regulation time.
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Alas, it took them simply 12 days to build up the requisite 4 losses, all of them in regulation. Identical to that the Oilers’ Stanley Cup hopes had been snuffed in a 6-game ouster that left their loyal followers (and even among the disloyal ones) despondent. Devastated, even.
It was an attention-grabbing train to match Edmonton’s efficiency on this sequence to the one earlier than, additionally 6 video games in size. As we wrote in an equal submit at the moment, they succeeded vs. the Kings by taking part in Oilers Hockey™. Statistically, their shot shares, capturing/save percentages and purpose shares virtually precisely mirrored their per-game outcomes over the course of the lengthy common season.
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Clearly that system didn’t carry over to Spherical Two. What occurred?
Season so far by section
Video games 1 -10: 7-3-0, .700 | 4.1 GF, 3.2 GA | 33.4 SF, 33.8 SA | 1.028 PDOGames 11-20: 3-7-0, .300 | 2.5 GF, 4.0 GA | 30.4 SF, 34.6 SA | .964 PDOGames 21-30: 7-3-0, .700 | 4.3 GF, 3.0 GA | 31.7 SF, 31.3 SA | 1.040 PDOGames 31-40: 4-4-2, .500 | 3.3 GF, 3.1 GA | 33.2 SF, 28.9 SA | .992 PDOGames 41-50: 7-1-2, .800 | 4.5 GF, 2.8 GA | 36.7 SF, 31.0 SA | 1.032 PDOGames 51-60: 4-2-4, .600 | 4.3 GF, 3.6 GA | 36.0 SF, 32.4 SA | 1.008 PDOGames 61-70: 7-3-0, .700 | 4.4 GF, 3.4 GA | 29.5 SF, 32.3 SA | 1.044 PDOGames 71-80: 9-0-1, .950 | 4.4 GF, 2.2 GA | 36.4 SF, 28.9 SA | 1.045 PDO
Video games 1-82: 50-23-9, .665 | 3.96 GF, 3.12 GA | 33.6 SF, 31.4 SA | 1.018 PDO
Video games 1.1-1.6: 4-2, .667 | 4.17 GF, 3.33 GA | 35.3 SF, 33.5 GA | 1.018 PDOGames 2.1-2.6: 2-4, .333 | 3.17 GF, 3.67 GA | 33.2 SF, 29.5 SA | .971 PDO
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By some measures the squad carried out OK. When expressed as a mean, the Oilers suppressed pictures at a greater price than they did in season or in opposition to the Kings. Their 53% of pictures on purpose additionally represented a marginal improve on seasonal charges within the 51-52 vary.
However … and also you knew this was coming … all of it fell aside within the percentages. The Oilers completed simply 9.5% of their pictures within the sequence, almost 3 full factors under the Golden Knights. Edmonton’s PDO of .971 was by a long way the poorest they recorded in any section since Video games 11-20, when their horrid .964 was a key contributor to a 3-7-0 run that was by far their worst of the season.
No less than there’s a lot of runway left after Sport 20. Whereas there are not any do-overs within the playoffs.
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Particular groups weren’t the issue. Over the sequence, Edmonton scored 9 powerplay objectives on 45 pictures in simply 35 minutes, a nifty 20% capturing share. Vegas on the opposite had scored simply 4 objectives on 41 pictures, with the Oilers including in a shorty as nicely.
It was at even energy the place the harm was achieved. Vegas gained that battle 18 objectives to 9, together with 15-9 at 5v5, 1-0 at 4v4, and 2-0 at 6v6 (one goalie out). As soon as once more Edmonton had a slim benefit in pictures, 141-134, however transformed a dismal 6.4% of them into objectives in comparison with a whopping 13.4% by the Vegans. That provides as much as a .930 PDO at even energy, which is code for “polish up the golf golf equipment”.
Whereas shot fashions are all nicely and good within the longer run, within the shorter time period from particular person video games to playoff sequence it’s the chances which might be extra topic to wild swings. Not simply the Oilers both. New Jersey had a PDO of simply .945 in all conditions in falling to Carolina, whereas Toronto was .967 in opposition to Florida. Each sequence led to 5 video games. Edmonton’s .971 was marginally higher in a 6-game set. Among the many sequence losers solely Seattle at .998 got here near break-even; in addition they got here closest to profitable their sequence, shedding 2-1 within the seventh recreation.
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By our personal evaluation of probably the most harmful alternatives right here on the Cult of Hockey, the Oilers posted very related outcomes vs. Vegas as that they had vs. Los Angeles:
Constantly 55% throughout the board. Sufficient to win vs. the Kings, however not sufficient to topple the Golden Knights.
In case you choose, let’s depart the numbers apart and easily work with the conclusions that may be drawn from them: not sufficient pictures made by the shooters; not sufficient stops made by the stoppers. That crude evaluation describes what went unsuitable for the Oilers to a T.
And to be truthful, what went proper for the Vegans. They transformed their probabilities, they usually snuffed these of the Oilers with regularity. Credit score the place due, they bought the job achieved in getting by the league’s most high-powered offence.
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Turning to particular person efficiency, let’s start with these goaltenders.
Aim
Outstanding splits. There’s fairly a narrative to be instructed right here, one which deserves a full submit (coming quickly).
The quick model is that Jack Campbell misplaced the arrogance of the teaching employees this season with percentages of three.41, .888. Stuart Skinner remained the goalie of selection all through the playoffs regardless of stats of three.68, .883 for the two sequence mixed, poorer than Campbell’s common season numbers by some margin.
Soup got here on no fewer than 4 occasions in aid, 3 of them on this sequence, and posted extraordinary numbers in 20-40 minute chunks. The coach, nevertheless, most well-liked a gradual food regimen of Stu.
Defence
Evan Bouchard‘s coming-out celebration continued, as he led all NHL d-men in scoring for the second playoff spherical in a row. Each single considered one of Bouchard’s 7 factors got here on the powerplay, as did 15 of his 17 factors over the two rounds mixed. In the meantime his 0 factors, -4 at even energy was lower than excellent. Bouchard’s associate Mattias Ekholm was the most efficient d-man at even energy with 3 factors.
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The opposite top-four pairing of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci had been lit up at even energy whereas producing little or no offensively. Ceci was on for simply 1 purpose for, 8 in opposition to, with by far the worst underlying numbers of the d-corps.
Certainly, it was Edmonton’s third pairing of Brett Kulak, Vincent Desharnais and sometimes Philip Broberg who saved their heads above water at even energy, in fewer minutes in opposition to lesser competitors, however bought the job achieved. Desharnais had a really robust Sport 1 however wasn’t on the ice for a single 5v5 purpose the remainder of the sequence.
Forwards
10 factors from Connor McDavid in Spherical One, 10 factors from McDavid in Spherical Two. 7 objectives from Leon Draisaitl in Spherical One, 6 objectives in Spherical Two. Enterprise as ordinary, proper?
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Flawed. Whereas the powerplay saved buzzing alongside, the story right here is just not sufficient scoring at 5v5. As with Bouchard on the blue line, the primary unit powerplayers all hit not less than 7 factors within the sequence, however after them the following highest scorer on the group was Ekholm with 3 factors. Not one of the different forwards managed greater than 2, with poor purpose differentials in lots of instances.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had 6 assists within the sequence, all on the powerplay, however simply 1-0-1 at 5v5, with some points on the defensive finish of the sheet as nicely. His 1-5 purpose differential at evens was disappointing to place it mildly.
Kailer Yamamoto had a very dismal sequence with 0 objectives, 2 assists, a measly 4 pictures on internet, and a dash-6 plus/minus. His 18 PiM included a few pricey penalties. He spent about 50% of his even-strength time with Draisaitl, breaking even on pictures however shedding the purpose share 2-6. The opposite 50% was spent within the backside 6, the place the Oilers bought simply 27% of the pictures (7 for, 19 in opposition to in almost 40 minutes) with an 0-2 purpose share.
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Evander Kane continued to have a tricky time of it, taking part in with a damaged finger within the submit season, his third vital damage of a star-crossed season. The massive one being the laceration of his wrist again in November. Since he got here again from that bodily insult he performed 39 video games together with playoffs, scoring 14 objectives — primarily, a 30-goal price — however simply 6 assists and a depressing -11. Within the Vegas sequence, no objectives, simply 1 help and a 2-5 purpose differential at 5v5. Now contemplate that Kane shall be a 32-year-old energy ahead subsequent season, the identical age that James Neal was when he arrived in Edmonton in 2019 along with his personal multi-year contract north of $5 million AAV. How nicely Kane bounces again subsequent season shall be enormous, however expertise tells us there are zero ensures.
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Lastly, let’s revisit the efficiency of the depth traces, particularly Edmonton’s efficiency at 5v5 when each McDavid and Draisaitl are on the bench. Throughout the season the squad produced a wonderful 55% purpose share in these circumstances, upping it marginally to 57% in Spherical One. However in opposition to the Golden Knights, the Oilers had been simply 3 for, 7 in opposition to for a 30% purpose share with out both of the 97-29 axis on the ice. Ouch.
Participant grades
We shut in our ordinary style by reviewing the set of 10 6 video games via the lens of our personal subjective rankings right here on the Cult of Hockey. Common readers will know that we grade on a scale of 1 to 10, the efficiency of each Edmonton Oilers participant in each recreation the group performs, based mostly on a mixture of statement and interpretation of statistical output. Listed below are common grades for the Vegas sequence together with our customary thumbnail remark summarizing every participant’s contribution over that span:
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Outcomes by grader, tenth section:
Not too long ago on the Cult of Hockey
STAPLES: Holland, Woodcroft focus on Oilers’ demise
STAPLES: 4 huge title Oilers below the gun for poor playoffs
McCurdy: Participant grades in elimination Sport 6
LEAVINS: 9 Issues
STAPLES: Unhealthy break, unhealthy name, unhealthy penalties drop Oilers in Sport 5
Comply with me on Twitter @BruceMcCurdy
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