On the evidence of what we’ve seen so far in the 2023 Tour de France, this could be the most closely fought duel between two champion riders for a generation. Jonas Vingegaard is the reigning king with the yellow jersey on his shoulders; Tadej Pogacar is the two-time winner gradually chipping into the Dane’s advantage – death by a thousand cuts.
Yesterday’s stage 13 saw Pogacar’s UAE Emirates control the front of the peloton and set a steady but not searing pace, allowing their leader to explode over the final few hundred metres and pinch a bit more time back from Vingegaard, who – after 53 hours, 48 minutes and 50 seconds – is now only nine seconds ahead of his Slovenian rival.
We can expect more fireworks on stage 14, which sees the peloton ride into the Alps on a 152km route from Annemasse to Morzine ski resort. Three tough category one climbs line the road to the hors categorie Col de Joux Plane (11.6km at 8.5%), a brutally steep grind where bonuses await the first few over the top and stage victory is the prize at the bottom.
The Joux Place is hideously painful and what’s so tough about the climb is that there is no respite – not a single kilometre of the 11.6 to the top averages less than 6.8% gradient. It is relentless and there is no escape. This is a great place to attack if the legs are feeling fresh, because a struggling rival has nowhere to hide, no safe place to reach. They simply have to dig in, face the pain and cling on.
Either Pogacar or Vingegaard could make a decisive play here. Whether or not the winner of their duel wins the stage itself depends on how far the breakaway is allowed to escape up the road, and whether anyone in it has the capability to finish the job in the way Michal Kwiatkowski clinched stage 13.
Vingegaard’s Jumbo-Visma showed little interest in chasing the breakaway yesterday, so it may be up to UAE Emirates to control the peloton. It should be another fascinating day at this Tour de France, and by the end of this brutal ride we should know more about the destiny of the yellow jersey.
Stage 14 route map and profile
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The Col de Joux Plane is a brute that guards the finish in Morzine
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Start time
The stage is set to begin at around 12pm BST and is expected to finish at around 4-4.30pm BST.
Prediction
The breakaway might be caught this time because it is such a demanding stage, and the strongest riders will come to the fore. There, I expect Pogacar to play a patient game and leave it late before bursting away from Vingegaard to clinch the stage, and perhaps the yellow jersey too.
