Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections key statistics and benchmarks
Polls have closed in parliamentary by-elections in Northamptonshire and South Gloucestershire, which represent the first tests for the main political parties of 2024, ahead of a national contest later this year.
In Wellingborough and Kingswood the government is defending majorities of more than 10,000, while Labour hopes to see its poll lead translate into votes.
The Conservatives face questions over their economic record after it emerged on Thursday that the UK had entered a recession at the end of 2023.
Labour has been mired in an antisemitism row and criticism of its decision to withdraw a pledge to spend £28 billion on green projects.
Both contests are seen largely as two-horse races between Labour and the Conservatives, but could also provide an indication of the strength of Reform UK, which has seen its polling numbers surge as it targets disgruntled voters on the right.
A Tory defeat in either constituency would also mean that the government would have clocked up more by-election losses in a single parliament than any administration since the 1960s.
Key Points
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Turnout in Kingswood by-election
We’ve just had the turnout announced for the Kingswood by-election; 37.11 per cent – which is higher than many were expecting, but still way down on the 71.5 per cent at the 2019 general election.
Alex Ross16 February 2024 00:12
Tory deputy chairman: Party has run ‘great campaign’ in ‘difficult’ Kingswood
Tory deputy chairman Luke Hall said his party had run a “great campaign” in Kingswood, but admitted the contest was “difficult”.
He told the BBC: “By-elections are always difficult for governing parties. Tony Blair lost by-elections, David Cameron lost by-elections, and then went on to win majorities and actually increase their share of the vote at the next general election.
“So I think we should be careful about reading too much into any specific by-election result because a lot of different factors are at play.
“But it’s too early to say what this result might be, we will just have to wait a few hours to find out, but we fought a great campaign, I’m proud of what we’ve done, I very much hope we get a good result.”
Archie Mitchell16 February 2024 00:05
Watch: UK officially in recession after latest GDP figures
The UK has officially entered a recession after ONS figures revealed a in GDP for the second quarter in a row.
The news marks a political blow for Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party on the same day two key by-elections are taking place.
Thursday’s results will be significant, with a Tory defeat in either constituency meaning that the Government has clocked up more by-election losses in a single parliament than any administration since the 1960s.
UK officially in recession after latest GDP figures
Athena Stavrou16 February 2024 00:01
Labour led a strong campaign in Kingswood
Labour have been favourites to win the Kingswood by-election ever since its former MP Chris Skidmore announced he was stepping down.
But that hasn’t stopped a really strong campaign locally by the party.
Social media, canvassing and several high profile party visitors have featured in the campaign. In fact, it’s been hard to avoid seeing party candidate Damien Egan’s face when flicking through Facebook or X.
We’ll find out soon if the party’s efforts have paid off.
Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves was among those party officials to join Damien Egan on his campaign
(PA)
Alex Ross15 February 2024 23:53
John Curtice: Tories ‘badly need to show they can turn it round’
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has said the Conservatives “badly need to show they can start to climb the electoral mountain” in Thursday’s by-elections.
Suggesting that the Government seemed to have “almost given up the fight from the beginning” in both Wellingborough and Kingswood, Sir John said: “One has to say one would normally have expected a governing party, what are we now, maybe a little more than nine months away from the general election, to be fighting by-elections like this as hard as they could.
“Because frankly Mr Sunak needs some good news on the electoral front. The opinion polls are suggesting that still the Conservatives are making no more than minimal progress since Mr Sunak first became Prime Minister.”
He added: “The Conservatives badly need to show they can start to climb the electoral mountain that they face. If they were to lose both by-elections, then the truth is, I would suggest, that they are not.”
Archie Mitchell15 February 2024 23:50
Polling guru John Curtice: Reform set to win 12 to 13 per cent in Wellingborough
Professor Sir John Curtice has said Reform UK can expect to win between 12 or 13 per cent of the vote in Wellingborough if its polling figures are accurate.
The veteran polling guru said the type of constituency that Wellingborough is, where around 63 per cent voted for Brexit, means it could be “relatively ripe territory for Reform”.
He said: “Quite a lot of people in the polling community have been saying that so far Reform’s relatively anaemic performances in parliamentary by-elections – their best performance is around 5-6 per cent – for their minds has been raising questions as to whether or not the 10 per cent that Reform is now registering in opinion polls, up the last two or three months, perhaps it’s overestimating Reform’s strength.
“Well, in a sense Wellingborough therefore will give us a crucial signal. Reform seem to have set for themselves a target (of) that 10 per cent, frankly given how pro-Leave the seat is one might think they ought to get something closer to 12 or 13.”
Archie Mitchell15 February 2024 23:35
Talk of Jacob Rees-Mogg coming tonight
Talk of Jacob Rees-Mogg to make an appearance at the count for the Kingswood by-election tonight.
Well, he’ll want to provide support to Tory candidate Sam Bromiley, but he’ll also be interested as part of this constituency will be swallowed by his current North East Somerset ward at the next general election due to boundary changes.
If there is strong support for Labour tonight, he could be worried what implication this will have on voting for the new constituency, called Hanham and North East Somerset.
(PA)
Alex Ross15 February 2024 23:29
All the candidates standing for office in Kingswood
There are six candidates standing in the by-election for the seat in Kingswood:
Sam Bromiley (Conservative)
Andrew Brown (Liberal Democrat)
The abolition of the constituency at the next general election – which has to take place by law no later than January 2025 – means whoever wins the by-election will represent the seat for only a few months.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer with Kingswood by-election candidate, Damien Egan
(PA)
Athena Stavrou15 February 2024 23:00
First stage of the by-election count for Kingswood
Now ballot boxes have started arriving from polling stations, the first job is to count the papers to provide the turnout figure.
We’ll be receiving that figure before the counting of votes begins.
The turnout figure is expected to be low.
Remember, this is a constituency which will not exist when we get to the general election later this year. A common grumble among locals is that this by-election, costing around £250,000, is a waste of money and time.
Here’s our piece from speaking to people in the street:
Alex Ross in Thornbury15 February 2024 22:52
Welcome to Thornbury
It’s a wet evening in Thornbury, where at the town’s leisure centre the count for the Kingswood by-election has started.
Ahead of the boxes of ballot papers coming in from the polling stations, we’ve had the postal votes counted, with just short of 9,000 received from the 13,302 requested.
The main hall is full of desks with people who are counting the votes.
Already there is a buzz inside with officials from all the parties gathered in huddles around the hall.
All smiles as people wait to count the votes
(The Independent)
It’s a wet evening in Thornbury where the by-election count is taking place
(The Independent)
Alex Ross15 February 2024 22:42