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2023 Edmonton Oilers prospects#4 Maximus Wanner
Ranking last year, #21
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This century in NHL entry drafts between 2000 and 2021, teams have taken 195 defencemen 200th overall or lower.
These are bottom basement picks. All of them wee gobbled up long after far more accomplished and promising players were selected.
But of those 195 d-men selected out of the bottom of the barrel, 11 of them became solid NHLers, with one more on his way. These 11 players all played 300-plus NHL games, with Anton Stralman leading the way, 938 regular games played, then Dustin Byfuglien, 869, Johnny Oduya, 850 and Justin Braun, 842.
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D-men drafted in recent years haven’t yet had that chance to hit the 300 mark but I suspect Jacob Middleton, who had now played 159 games in the NHL, has a good shot.
There may be a few more than Middleton who will shoot up.
And one of then could be Edmonton Oilers prospect Maximus Wanner, taken 212th overall in the 2021 draft.
It’s a long shot for any d-man taken at this part of the draft. On average, about six per cent of all the d-men drafted 200-plus hit that 300 game mark, giving each one of them, on average, about a one in 17 shot at making it in the NHL.
Why then the optimism around Maximum Wanner? He has, after all, just now been ranked as the highest d-man prospect in the Edmonton organization. The Oilers have also handed him an Entry Level Contract and he’s expected to make the Bakersfield Condors next season.
When he was taken in the draft in 2021, the reviews were less than glowing.
Justin Frose of Future Considerations was not bullish about the player: “I heard some rumblings on Wanner but he honestly didn’t do much for me when I watched him. I did not rank him as part of my list.”
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Scott Wheeler of the Athletic said: “I’d be surprised if Shane Lachance or Max Wanner ever get entry-level deals.”
And the Athletic’s Corey Pronman: “Lacks dimensions in his skating and skill that will allow him to transport and move pucks at higher levels.”
But if Wanner was a 1-in-17 chance to play 300 NHL games on the day he was drafted, I’ll suggest those odds are now more like 1-in-4.
Wanne played little in his draft year, just 17 WHL games, so scouts didn’t have much to go on, but they do now. He cranked it up to 23 points in 55 games in his Draft+1 season, then 30 points in 44 games this season, his Draft+2, and final year of major junior.
He was also +23 for goals plus-minus. Of course, this isn’t the best stat on which to rate an individual player, as it’s earned by a large group of players over time, not a singe player. But his Moose Jaw squad was nonetheless +23 for goals when Wanner was on the ice at even strength this year, and that was the best mark on his squad by a long shot.
The other aspect of Wanner that has folks bullish on him are his size, 6-foot, 3-inches, 190-pounds, and his aggressive play.
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There’s been some solid reports on Wanner from scouts, including one who talked recently to Allan “Lowetide” Mitchell of The Athletic and said Wanner was trending up: “He’s long and rangy and plays with a miserable bite.”
Wanner has also looked sharp in brief showings at the Oilers development camp and in rookie games, such as a contest against the Winnipeg Jets rookies last September, when I noted that the 19-year-old made a helluva good first impression, that he was big but skated well, and was smooth and confident skating with and protecting the puck. In that game, Wanner made several sure plays to evade Winnipeg forecheckers.
Wanner also looked good in a rookie game against Calgary, with my sharp-eyed Cult colleague Bruce McCurdy writing, “The strapping right shot defender handled himself well for the most part playing first-pairing minutes with Broberg.”
Finally, Wanner shoots right and just now the Oilers are short again on right shot d-man prospects.
Of course, it could be that Wanner’s high ranking among Oilers prospects this year simply reflects how weak Edmonton’s prospect pool is just now. It’s consistently ranked near the bottom of NHL prospect groups.
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And it’s also the case that there’s been plenty of d-men ranked in our Top 5 for Oilers prospects before who have failed to pan out.
This includes Taylor Chorney, 4th overall in 2007, Theo Peckham, as high as 3rd in 2008, Alex Plante, 5th in 2008, Martin Marincin, as high as 3rd in 2013, Griffin Reinhart, 3rd in 2015, Ziyat Paigin, 3rd in 2016, and Dmitri Samorukov, 4th in 2020.
Lots of fine young prospects fail to make it big in the NHL.
But a handful of them do so.
And that’s what keeps us watching and hoping.
Good luck to Maximus Wanner.
He’s already taken a big step signing an Entry Level Contract. Now comes the AHL.
Expectations for 2023-34: Taking a regular shift in Bakersfield on the right side and a regular turn on the PK there. Getting a handful of points and holding his own in team plus-minus. Stepping us as the season goes along, starting to dominant on defence with his physical edge and maybe busting into the Top 4 by the last stretch of the year.
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