Why Slovakia’s election doesn’t really matter for Europe – POLITICO

He’s back — and he’s out for revenge.

What may sound like the voice-over for a B-movie trailer is in fact a real-life political drama playing out in Slovakia’s election campaign, where former Prime Minister Robert Fico, who was forced to resign in 2018 amid a popular revolt, has returned to center stage with a vengeance.

Fico, the leader of a left-wing populist party known as Smer (or, more officially, Direction–Social Democracy) is narrowly leading the polls with about 20 percent ahead of Sunday’s election, slightly ahead of the liberal Progressive Slovakia. The snap election comes after the collapse of a center-right alliance that took over from Smer in 2020.

A former communist who rebranded himself a Social Democrat after the fall of the Iron Curtain, Fico, 59, has set alarm bells ringing in Western capitals in recent months by vowing to halt military support for Ukraine and block the country’s path into NATO. He’s even parroted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s talking points, blaming the Kremlin’s war on “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists.”

What has some officials in Brussels worried is that Fico appears to be out for blood. Though his party belongs to the Socialists & Democrats group in the European Parliament, Fico’s allies abandoned him amid the uproar that erupted in 2018 following the gangland-style murders of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his girlfriend, Martina Kušnírová. Kuciak had been investigating evidence of corruption involving Fico’s party and associates of the prime minister at the time of his death.

“He will prove to be a tough partner driven by revenge,” predicts Milan Nič, a Slovak analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s more about psychology.”

In his two previous stints as premier — from 2006-2010 and 2012-2018 — Fico, who is known for his salty language and working man appeal, proved to be a pragmatic player on the European and transatlantic stages, questioning neither the country’s obligations toward the EU nor NATO.

But his ouster in 2018 and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine appear to have prompted a rethink.

Fico’s newfound Russophilia has resonated in a country where many voters were socialized during the Soviet-era and whose cybersphere is regularly bombarded by Moscow’s sulfurous propaganda.

Thanks to that relentless disinformation campaign, more than half the population believes the West is responsible for the war, according to a think-tank study published earlier this year. Support for NATO membership dropped to just 58 percent.  

On Tuesday, European Commission Vice President Věra Jourová called the Slovak elections “a test case” for how vulnerable European elections are to the “multi-million-euro weapon of mass manipulation.” Brussels is so concerned that it has threatened to fine social media giants Alphabet, TikTok and Meta if they don’t do more to combat the problem.

European commentators are also in full pearl-clutching mode, with former New Statesman Editor John Kampfner, himself of Slovak stock, warning in the Guardian: “Slovakia matters far more that Europe realizes.”

Not really.

If Slovakia, a country of about 5.5 million people, matters so much, then why do so many people (including Silvio Berlusconi and George W. Bush) confuse it with Slovenia?

That Europe is only waking up to Fico’s political comeback (which has been apparent for months) a few days before the election is a pretty good indication of its relevance.

The reality is, Slovakia has always been something of a backwater, whether in the Habsburg empire or as the second fiddle in Czechoslovakia during the Cold War. The country’s small-man syndrome has always bred distrust of outside forces, be they Austrian, Czech, Polish, Hungarian or American.  

One might even argue that the ingrained resentment — skillfully harnessed by Fico — is the defining characteristic of its politics.

Yet given how dependent the country is on the EU, it won’t matter that much in the end.

Heralded as the “Tatra tiger” in the early 2000s due do its rapid growth, Slovakia’s economy today is an also-ran. Its per-capita GDP puts it near the bottom of the euro-area rankings with the likes of Latvia and Croatia. It does top the league tables by one measure — the size of its budget deficit, which is forecast to reach nearly 7 percent this year.

Fico is promising his voters an economic turnaround — and more social spending. Getting there won’t be possible without help from the EU, including the €6 billion in recovery-fund money Brussels has earmarked for the country. Any move to veer from the mainstream on fiscal matters would be met with a backlash from investors, sending Slovakia’s borrowing costs higher. As a member of the euro, the country leaders can’t turn to the central bank for relief.

Many observers have pointed to Fico’s affinity for Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and predict he could follow a similarly illiberal path.

But in contrast to Orbán, whose Fidesz party rules with an absolute majority, Fico’s Smer will be lucky to crack the 20-percent mark. In order to form a coalition he will have to corral extremist pro-Russian parties and his one-time-ally-turned-nemesis Peter Pellegrini, who took over as prime minister from Fico in 2018, only to split off and form a new party.  

That constellation suggests that politics in Slovakia, which has had five prime ministers over the past five years, will remain unstable. And if there’s one thing the Slovaks have shown in recent years — especially the younger generation — it’s that they are staunchly pro-European. It’s difficult to imagine the same people who took to the streets in 2018 and drove Fico from power will just stand by and watch their country follow Hungary’s dubious example.

On the defense front, the big concern with Fico in Europe is his pledge to “not send a single round” of ammunition to Ukraine if elected. Yet given that Bratislava has already delivered everything its military could spare, it’s not much of a threat. Slovakia ranks 19th overall in terms of Ukraine aid, one rung behind neutral Austria.

If Fico refused to allow weapons meant for Ukraine to transit through Slovak territory, that would be a logistical annoyance, but not much more. It would also invite the ire of the United States. Considering that his country relies on Washington for its security, Fico would be wise tread lightly.

The main reason Europe needs to stop worrying about a return of Fico has nothing to do with geopolitics or grand strategy. What all the Sturm und Drang over Fico misses is that there’s a fair chance he won’t win.

In recent days, the polls have been tightening, hinting at a late spurt by the progressives.  

If the progressives manage to eke out a win, Fico will recede into the shadows (at least until the country’s upcoming presidential election in April) and we can all go back to not caring about Slovak politics.