The Cato Institute recently released a new poll and report detailing public opinion on trade. The headline number is very encouraging: 63% of Americans want to increase trade with other nations. There are some details to discuss, but in general Americans do not have the protectionist streak their politicians do. Again, this is encouraging because it does not suggest a broad based turn away from the trade liberalism that has generally characterized the post-World War 2 era, at least in the mind of the public.
What is interesting about these numbers is that they come even as Americans are skeptical about the effects of trade on jobs and wages. According to the poll, about 39% of respondents worry trade reduces the number of jobs, 37% are concerned trade reduces the quality of jobs available, and 39% think trade reduces wages. Indeed, 80% fear trade has harmed some American industries. Despite these concerns, Americans reject protectionism: 2/3rds-4/5ths of Americans reject tariffs when even small increases in price occur (the question is asked multiple times in multiple ways, thus the range). About half of Americans (48%) reject tariffs that are lobbied for business or industry groups.
There are many other fascinating tidbits in the report. But these instances of skepticism represent a major source of advancement for the classical liberal movement. Education appears to be the way to reduce skepticism over trade and build broader support. Of course, education can be formal (indeed, one of the graphs in the report finds support for trade is highly correlated with one’s formal educational achievement), but with the proliferation of blogs, YouTube, and other low-monetary-cost media, education can include informal as well.
And this is why I write. Writing blog posts, op-eds, doing podcasts, and so on are a vital 21st Century method of conveying information and helping people overcome their skepticism. With trade in particular, correcting misconceptions is very difficult. Concepts like comparative advantage are very difficult to understand and explain. But Americans seem to have a good intuition for trade. I think it is a worthy endeavor as an academic to help Americans understand those gut feelings.
PS: one could respond “If trade is so popular, why is protectionism a platform of both major parties?” The report answers that as well. Only 1% of respondents say that trade & globalization is a “Top 3” political issue for them. Protectionist adoption by both the Democrats and Republicans is your classic Public Choice result: while it is politically unpopular, the group who considers it important are a minority. Politicians can adopt the position, win votes from special interest groups who strongly support such handouts, and not significantly risk losing votes. Other issues like inflation, jobs, immigration, etc., all play a bigger role for voters. Helping them understand the connection between trade and these issues will also help push back against the protectionist movement.
Jon Murphy is an assistant professor of economics at Nicholls State University.
