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We were thrilled when the Oilers drafted him.
We were certain he would be a star.
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Hell, legendary NHL coach Scotty Bowman compared his talent to that of Russian supernova Pavel Bure.
Many of us became besotted with his potential in his early days in Edmonton. Some of remained that way even after he was traded away.
But 11 years after Nail Yakupov was taken first overall in the 2012 NHL entry draft, an argument can be made that in all the years of the NHL draft, he was the worst pick ever.
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Far from being exploding into superstar status, Yakupov has never panned out as a pro player. Aside from a promising first NHL season, he’s never shown much at the AHL level. And aside from a solid first season in the KHL, he’s never established himself as a top level player in Russia either.
He will be 30 this October, but on his Omsk Ovangard club team in the KHL last year he scored just one goal and two assists in 14 playoff games, that after a regular season that saw him put up 10 points in 16 games.
There’s not going to be any sudden explosion where Yakupov reaches the heights predicted for him when he was a major junior ace with the Sarnia Sting. He lacks the size, speed, skill and hockey sense of an elite attacker either at the NHL or KHL level.
There are, of course, other contenders for title of the worst overall pick.
Since the first pick in an NHL draft is by far the most valuable pick, it’s those picks that hurt a team the most if they fail to turn out an elite player.
With that first overall pick, an NHL team can take anyone in the entire draft. If you screw it up, your franchise can suffer for years to come.
For example, did the Canadiens of Montreal ever fully recover their aura after taking Doug Wickenheiser over Denis Savard in the 1980 draft?
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Is it a coincidence that the NHL franchises in Minnesota and Atlanta failed after they struck out with first overall picks, Minnesota drafting Brian Lawton over Steve Yzerman and Pat Lafontaine in the 1983 draft, Atlanta taking Patrik Stefan over Daniel or Henrik Sedin in the 1999 draft.
A few first overall picks played fewer NHL games than did Yakupov, namely Gord Kluzak and Rick DiPietro. But Kluzak was an outstanding young NHL who showed every sign of becoming an all-star d-man before injury ended his career. DiPietro was also a strong young goalie who was shut down by injury.
Alexandre Daigle, Wickenheiser and Lawton were also first overall picks who failed to become top line aces, but they all had their moments in the NHL and lasted longer than did Yakupov.
The only two players who are in the running against Yakupov are Greg Joly, taken first overall by the Washington Capitals in the 1974 draft and Patrick Stefan, taken first overall by Atlanta in the 1999 draft.
Stefan last longer in the NHL than Yakupov. Joly became a solid AHL player, likely better in that league than Yakupov in the KHL. Joly also had the disadvantage of playing the Caps of 1974-75, the worst NHL team in league history.
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If someone wants to make the argument that Stefan or Joly was a worst pick than Yakupov, a strong case can certainly be made. I’m not going to disagree. But Yakupov is clearly in the running, with his claim re-enforced by his mediocre KHL performance.
Yes, we’ve come a long way with Yak since the spring of 2012, when Edmonton fans consoled themselves on another rancid season in the Decade of Darkness with the “Fail for Nail” campaign.
In drafting Yakupov, it was widely held that the Edmonton Oilers selected the most talented player in junior hockey.
The Yakupov pick had the feel of a no-brainer, even if it seemed to be in doubt on the day of the draft as rumours spread over the Internet that the Oilers would use the top pick to draft one of two young defencemen, Ryan Murray or Griffin Reinhart.
But that was not to be, as was made clear in the moments before the Oilers made their selection and TSN analyst Bob MacKenzie weighed in. “The obvious pick, as obvious as it can be, is that Nail Yakupov is the guy,” said MacKenzie. “Eight of the ten scouts surveyed by TSN ranked him as the No. 1 prospect for this draft.”
Earlier that same week at the Cult of Hockey, we ran a poll about which players the Oilers should take. In the moments before the Oilers made their selection, 5,432 fans had taken part in the poll, with 4,610 voting for Yakupov (85 per cent), 641 voting for Murray (12 per cent) and 181 voting for some other player (three per cent).
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It’s clear that almost everyone was mad for Yakupov. And that made perfect sense.
Before he suffered a knee injury (non-career threatening) at mid-season, Yakupov had been scoring at a higher rate than Steve Stamkos, Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin and John Tavares in their draft years.
In Edmonton, however, Yakupov never found his niche. He was never handed over a regular spot on a top line or on the top power play, not with a team already boasting Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle at forward.
He never found his way as a Top Six forward, save for a few months in his rookie year, then again in 2014-15 when he teamed up on a line with Derek Roy.
After Connor McDavid arrived in 2015, there were hopes that McD would ignite Yak’s game, but not to be.
In late Feb. 2016, near the end of McD’s first year and Yak’s last year in Edmonton, trade rumours around Yakupov were non-stop. At that time, Yakupov had his haters in Edmonton who would be glad to see him gone, but he also still had fans who couldn’t fathom he might be on the way out.
In July 2016, Drew Remenda blasted Yakupov for his work effort in practice. “I think he’s also got to be a better practice player…I know I talk about this a lot. I know they think I’m a broken record. But we’ve seen Nail Yakupov kind of check out at practice. And he’s got to be better, more focused, determined in practice, because that does 100 per cent transfer over to the game.”
Me? I was firmly in the middle. It seemed to me that Yakupov had only rarely ever played solid two-way hockey as an Oiler, and his attacking had almost always been underwhelming. I could see why he was in the doghouse. He often made terrible decisions on the ice and demonstrated little puck sense, even as he hustled like a madman most shifts.
All that said, on a very bad Oilers team with few solid options on the wing, I had seen enough of Yakupov’s skill, drive and effort to want to see him more with McDavid or Taylor Hall for a spell before he was moved out.
After he was traded, Yak’s supporters held out hope he would still make it big in some other city, showing up the incompetence of the Oilers coaching staff and management.
But not to be.
He struggled in St. Louis, then Colorado, then was out of the NHL by the start of the 2018-19 season.
Of course, he still might have redeemed himself in Russia, becoming a top scorer in the KHL.
But that also proved to be too much of a hope for Yakupov.
I wish it had turned out different. I still hope he can find his way as a top KHLer.
And having made my case, I’ll leave it at that. And I’ll leave you with this…
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At the Cult of Hockey
McCURDY: Oilers rocked expansion era like no other newbie
LEAVINS: We already know the two main ingredients of Oilers’ Stanley Cup recipe — 9 Things
McCURDY: Oilers and Vegas shopping in different aisles
STAPLES: That best thing about the Oilers that bores you so much
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