Analysis Questions
What’s neomedievalism, and what does it include?What do neomedieval situations imply for U.S. protection work concerning China?What do neomedieval situations imply for potential warfare involving the USA and China?
This report examines how U.S.-China rivalry may unfold underneath situations characterised by a mix of some points of recent life with a way more substantial attenuation or regression of different points, a situation the authors label neomedievalism.
The report outlines key tendencies that collectively recommend that the way forward for the U.S.-China rivalry will bear little resemblance to the titanic struggles of the previous two centuries. U.S.-China peacetime competitors seems headed to unfold underneath situations that includes a excessive diploma of worldwide dysfunction, decaying state capability, pervasive and acute home challenges, and extreme constraints imposed by financial and social components which are vastly completely different from these industrial nation-states skilled within the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. These tendencies work together with and compound the results of each other and are unlikely to be reversed. The web impact will probably be to significantly weaken just about all states, together with the USA and China. On the similar time, extreme useful resource constraints and an almost overwhelming array of threats will stress the U.S. and China militaries and impair their skill to cope with each other. Many theories and concepts of why and the way nice powers compete could have to be reconsidered.
Key Findings
The attribute situations of neomedievalism are already evident
Politically, the centralized nation-state is in steep decline, spurring extreme political crises in lots of international locations.
Economically, progress has slowed and grow to be imbalanced, resulting in the return of entrenched inequalities and enlargement of illicit economies.
Nonstate threats, together with pandemics, banditry, and ecological and pure disasters, may outpace rival militaries as safety considerations.
Preindustrial points of warfare have reemerged, together with the prevalence of siege warfare, irregular and protracted battle, the privatization of warfare, and the prominence of intrastate battle.
The realities of state weak point and societal fragmentation ought to grow to be central issues in all protection work
Dealing with home and transnational threats and deterrence of assaults that threaten political legitimacy ought to have a precedence equal to or increased than deterrence of standard army assault.
The conservation of army assets and the avoidance of main conflict will grow to be crucial to nationwide success.
The purpose and logic of warfare may change accordingly
Because the pursuit of whole victory over flashpoints, akin to Taiwan, turns into infeasible, focusing on the delicate political legitimacy of the rival may grow to be extra enticing as a direct method of gaining leverage in negotiations on proximate disputes.
A perpetually tenuous stage of standard help for the federal government will doubtless deepen the army’s dependence on mercenaries, unmanned methods, and coalition companions for fight operations.
Desk of Contents
Chapter One
Introduction: The Neomedieval Period
Chapter Two
Politics and Authorities: Weakening States
Chapter Three
Tradition and Society: Fragmenting Societies
Chapter 4
Economics: Imbalanced Economies
Chapter 5
Safety Points: Pervasive Threats
Chapter Six
Army Affairs: The Informalization of Warfare
Chapter Seven
Again to the Previous? The Way forward for U.S.-China Rivalry
This analysis was sponsored by the Workplace of the Secretary of Protection and carried out throughout the Worldwide Safety and Protection Coverage Heart of the RAND Nationwide Protection Analysis Institute (NDRI).
This report is a part of the RAND Company Analysis report collection. RAND experiences current analysis findings and goal evaluation that handle the challenges dealing with the private and non-private sectors. All RAND experiences bear rigorous peer evaluate to make sure excessive requirements for analysis high quality and objectivity.
This doc and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by regulation. This illustration of RAND mental property is offered for noncommercial use solely. Unauthorized posting of this publication on-line is prohibited; linking on to this product web page is inspired. Permission is required from RAND to breed, or reuse in one other kind, any of its analysis paperwork for industrial functions. For info on reprint and reuse permissions, please go to www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Company is a nonprofit establishment that helps enhance coverage and decisionmaking by analysis and evaluation. RAND’s publications don’t essentially mirror the opinions of its analysis purchasers and sponsors.
