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Turkey goes to the polls Sunday in one of the crucial important elections on the planet this 12 months, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan nicely positioned to increase his maintain on energy.
He faces Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the chief of an opposition coalition, who underperformed opinion ballot projections within the first spherical on Might 14.
Erdoğan, who since 2003 has served first as prime minister after which as head of state, has the clear higher hand in what has been a extremely polarizing contest, happening in opposition to the backdrop of the devastation attributable to the large earthquake Turkey suffered in February.
“Erdoğan’s incumbency benefits allowed him to get forward within the first spherical and the identical benefits will assist him get to the ending line,” mentioned Soner Çağaptay, director of the Turkish analysis program on the Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage.
The primary theme of the tight race has been the nation’s financial troubles attributable to Erdoğan’s unorthodox insurance policies that led to excessive inflation and a plunging forex.
Erdoğan’s critics additionally say he has undermined his nation’s democracy and depict Sunday’s vote as a way-station to extra authoritarian rule.
The president received the primary spherical vote with 49.5 p.c and 27 million votes — 2.5 million greater than his rival. The coalition headed by his AK get together additionally secured management of Turkey’s parliament.
Within the aftermath of the primary spherical, by which Kılıçdaroğlu scored 45 p.c, the opposition chief took a flip towards extra nationalist politics, concluding a cope with far-right politician Victory Social gathering Chairman Ümit Özdağ and promising to deport thousands and thousands of Syrian and Afghan refugees from Turkey.
However Kılıçdaroğlu proved unable to win the help of the primary nationalist candidate Sinan Oğan, who got here third with 5 p.c of the vote and who as an alternative endorsed Erdoğan.
Regardless of the opposition’s nationalistic streak, Selahattin Demirtaş, a jailed Kurdish politician, known as on voters to help Kılıçdaroğlu within the second spherical.
“If there is no such thing as a change from the poll field, will probably be a catastrophe within the financial system and democracy. There isn’t any third spherical of this enterprise anymore. Let’s make Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu the President, let Türkiye breathe,” he mentioned in a tweet.
Some analysts mentioned the primary spherical outcomes mirrored the enduring attraction of Erdoğan’s populist and Islamist-rooted politics, notably for Turkey’s rural heartlands, which remained far more loyal to the AK get together than the nation’s greatest cities, which have more and more turned in opposition to the long-term president.
Critics fear that below Erdoğan’s rule Turkey’s ties to the West may weaken additional and the independence of the nation’s media, judiciary and different establishments can be pushed into sharper decline.
Çağaptay of the Washington Institute mentioned Erdoğan has been helped by “his full management of the knowledge circulation” in Turkey. A lot of the media is managed by enterprise teams near the president and a few 80 p.c of Turks learn information solely in their very own language.
“He can ‘curate’ actuality for them,” Çağaptay mentioned. “He can body a number of the opposition as being ‘backed’ by terrorists, and I believe that’s the place a part of the voters acquired caught — they by no means acquired to the purpose of who’s going to run Turkey higher.”
