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Not all of this week’s big Donald Trump news was tied to indictments.
On Thursday, the former president distributed a video and statement on the auto industry ― specifically, about how he intends to save it from what he says is President Joe Biden’s neglect. The missive covered a lot of ground, including how, according to Trump, Biden’s failure to control inflation and get tough with trading partners has put U.S. carmakers at a disadvantage.
But the main thrust of the message was an attack on Biden’s support for electric vehicles.
Biden and his Democratic allies have been touting that support, especially through subsidies that were part of last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, as one of their biggest accomplishments ― not just as a way to fight climate change, but as a way to revive America’s manufacturing base and the jobs that go with it.
The early signs are promising. There’s been a dramatic jump in industry investment and announcements of new factories, including four new battery plants in Michigan alone. Each one of these facilities has the potential to create thousands of jobs directly, and many more indirectly, whether it’s part suppliers or nearby diners. (Line workers have to eat, after all.)
Companies across the country are “expanding factories, building new ones, creating tens of thousands of good-paying jobs, most of which don’t require a four-year degree,” the president said in a recent speech touting “Bidenomics.”
But the transition to EVs also depends on Americans buying the vehicles. The market is fluctuating, as new markets do, and after months when sales were rising, there are now signs of slowing. Trump’s Thursday statement seized on one such report to argue that the promotion of electric vehicles, which also includes higher gas mileage standards, is pushing companies to produce cars that consumers don’t really want and can’t afford, even with the subsidies.
“Joe Biden is waging war on the U.S. auto industry with a series of crippling mandates designed to force Americans into expensive electric cars, even as thousands of electric cars are piling up on car lots, all unsold,” Trump said. “This ridiculous Green New Deal crusade is causing car prices to skyrocket while setting the stage for the destruction of American auto production.”
Tump foreshadowed this argument during a speech to supporters in Michigan last month, when he predicted that the push for electric vehicles would “decimate” the auto industry so tied to the state’s history and culture — and noted that some of the newly planned factories are partnerships with companies tied to China. “The push for all electric cars, it’s killing the United States, it’s killing Michigan and it’s a total vote for China,” Trump said then.
It’s not hard to see why that argument would play well in MAGA circles, where fuel-efficient EVs have become a symbol of cultural liberalism and the threat of China looms especially large. It’s also fair to be skeptical that the argument will resonate with other voters, who may care more about climate change or may appreciate the chance to spend less money on gas.
But there was one last, politically critical element to Trump’s attack: an assertion that the transition to EV production will mean fewer jobs overall or less pay for autoworkers.
That argument has potential to connect with a broader group of voters, especially if they hear a version of it from somebody else ― somebody they trust. And that’s just what happened this week, when United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain visited Washington.
The UAW Has Entered The Conversation
Fain has been on the job for only a few months, following a close election where members got to choose leadership directly for the first time. Fain’s central promise was to adopt a more aggressive posture toward the automakers and, if need be, to exercise more independence from traditional allies in the Democratic Party.
The UAW is now headed into negotiations for new contracts with Ford, General Motors and Stellantis (the European conglomerate that owns Chrysler), and the future of EV production is probably the biggest single item in contention. Of particular concern to the union are those new battery plants that the automakers plan to operate jointly with overseas companies that have technical capabilities Americans still lack.
The Big Three have said they don’t want the union contracts at those plants to be part of the same “master agreements” that cover workers at existing factories the companies run on their own. UAW leadership sees that insistence as an attempt to get out from under the terms of existing contracts and to weaken union bargaining power, and they say they need more support from the White House.
The union has said it’s withholding an endorsement of Biden for now, and Fain was particularly angry last month after the Biden administration signed off on a $9.2 billion loan for a Ford partnership plant, without first securing agreements about compensation and working conditions.
“We have been absolutely clear that the switch to electric engine jobs, battery production and other EV manufacturing cannot become a race to the bottom,” Fain said. “Not only is the federal government not using its power to turn the tide ― they’re actively funding the race to the bottom with billions in public money.”
White House officials have responded by stressing their support for the union and its goals, and pointing to what is arguably the most pro-labor record of any president in half a century. That includes clear public statements defending the right to organize, as well as a push to tie green energy subsidies to high labor standards.
White House officials also note that the only reason the requirements for EV subsidies aren’t even stronger is that there weren’t enough votes in Congress to support them. Even so, they say, Biden is using what leverage he has to push for what both he and the unions have been calling a “just transition” to EVs, where the new jobs treat workers as well as the existing ones do.
“The laws don’t contain every single legal tool that we would have liked,” Celeste Drake, the National Economic Council’s deputy director in charge of labor issues, told me. “But… [Biden] is out there using the bully pulpit and talking about how U.S. firms are better off if they use union labor. He is out there explaining his expectations for the creation of good jobs, including the free and fair choice to join a union.”
“He’s really using every tool there is… to put his thumb on the scale for a just transition for workers,” Drake said.
One reason to take those vows seriously: Biden promised to apply similar pressure on railway carriers that were refusing to give workers sick leave last year. The railway carriers eventually gave in and agreed to some sick days, winning praise from railway unions that had been critical of Biden before.
Another reason to take those vows seriously: Fain’s trip to Washington included a visit to the White House and a meeting with Biden himself.
Labor Has No Love For Trump
Public tension notwithstanding, Fain and other UAW leaders have made it clear they’re not signing up for the Republican war on EVs ― nor are they about to support Trump, for that matter. Fain has already said in an open letter that he thinks “another Donald Trump presidency would be a disaster,” and he’s conveyed that privately as well, according to several sources.
Rep. Debbie Dingell, the veteran Michigan Democrat who knows the state and its labor politics as well as anybody, says she thinks such skepticism about Trump is widespread, because workers remember how little he did for them as president.
“Most workers are not going to believe that he’s going to be fighting for them every day, or trying to get them higher wages or fighting for their benefits or the things that they’re going to be looking for in the contracts,” Dingell told me. “What workers are looking for is a person who really understands them, which Joe Biden does, who will fight for them as people and individuals, as Joe Biden will.”
But, Dingell added, “the challenge for the administration for the next few months is actually making sure that the workers see that ― and that they address some of the anxieties that the workers have.”
It seems virtually certain the UAW will endorse Biden eventually. But there’s still the potential for a tepid endorsement, which could mean fewer boots on the ground to support Biden’s campaign ― and less public validation for what Biden says about EVs, the economy and jobs.
The ultimate impact might be small. But even tiny swings in public sentiment can make a big difference in states like Michigan, as Trump has proven once before.
