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2022-23 Edmonton Oilers in reviewPhilip Broberg, Dylan Holloway
“The first year I was here, the cap was $81.5 million. Five years later, the cap is $83.5 million. In that time, Yamamoto wants a raise, and Puljujarvi wants a raise. Bouchard wants a raise. McLeod wants a raise. Skinner wants a raise. Nurse wants a raise… Money is tight. It’s a salary-cap world.”
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So said Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland in an in-depth interview with Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic last week. 3 of the guys he named got a raise in 2022, the other 3 are set for one in 2023.
So far the results are mixed at best:
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Bottom line is that internally-developed players like all of the above do indeed earn a bigger slice of the pie as they prove their value. But in the case of the Oilers, where so many mid-career players are locked in at big bucks for multiple years, the cap space to allocate to those deserving younger players is almost nonexistent.
This is a point we’ve examined from multiple viewpoints over the past couple of weeks, so will take a fresh angle here. With so many of these players — mostly, draft picks from the Peter Chiarelli regime — now getting paid, who will provide the value contracts going forward?
Some value deals will be provided by veterans like Derek Ryan, recently re-upped with a $350k haircut. Other cheap vets will be hired or perhaps rehired. But a big part of the solution is to replenish the ranks of younger players, ideally those still on their ELC. Who will be next season’s Evan Bouchard or Ryan McLeod?
This season, as Holland becomes the first Oilers GM to enter his fifth year at the helm since Steve Tambellini (2008-13), that means players drafted by his own regime.
2 of those players are obvious choices. Holland’s first-round picks from 2019 and 2020 respectively both played around 50 games for the Oilers last season. Fair to say that neither of them really moved the needle, as both struggled to earn their coaches’ trust to play the heavy and/or the important minutes. Injuries affected the progress of both youngsters.
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But the good news is that both Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway both remain on their ELC in the season to come, and have one last chance to outperform their rookie contract. Let’s look at each in turn:
Ken Holland came under scrutiny and no small amount of criticism when he used his first Oilers draft choice — at #8 overall, still the highest — on Philip Broberg. Sure, the Swedish d-man had good size and great wheels, but his résumé was a little light compared to US National Team Development Program stars like Trevor Zegras, Matthew Boldy and Cole Caufield, all of whom were still on the board. But Holland and staff (which did not yet include Tyler Wright) stuck to their guns and went with the blueliner.
4 years later that criticism still echoes on Oilers Twitter and other dark corners of Oil Country. All of the flashy American forwards have gone on to make their mark at a young age. It’s a truism that d-men take a little longer, but in this case “a little” is growing into “quite a bit” and the pressure is growing on the youngster to step up and find a role.
Which hasn’t been easy in Edmonton. Broberg’s first bits of bad fortune in this town came in the 2021 World Junior, when as Sweden’s captain he suffered 2 different injuries that not only wrecked his tournament, they also set him back in the second half of the SHL season.
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He showed promise in his first North American season, especially in the AHL where he pounded home 23 points in 31 games. In Edmonton he got a couple of stints, seeming utterly overwhelmed in the first (during an injury bug on the blue line) and much more quiet and competent in his second, longer run. Overall he played 23 GP, 1-2-3, -8.
Last fall many/most expected Broberg to make the squad in a third pairing role, but he ran into injury issues before, during and after camp, got cut by the team, then cut himself in his kitchen after his first AHL game.
Meanwhile, the guys ahead of him were healthy as could be. Unlike the prior year when all the D seemingly got hurt at once, in 2022-23 the Oilers D was healthy as could be. The top 5 missed just 2 games among them all year. That was great at one level, but never opened a door for Broberg to take on a bigger role at any point.
It was near the end of November before he finally got the call, replacing Markus Niemelainen at the bottom of the roster. Broberg drew in to the line-up in Edmonton’s 21st game, then his roles changed in Games 42 and 62, dividing his NHL season almost perfectly into its four quarters:
Given the health of the big 5, Broberg seemed forever consigned to the #6 role, or the #7, or the pressbox. His best run came in the season’s third quarter, when Edmonton called up Vincent Desharnais went with a 7-man unit that included 4 righties and just 3 lefties. He played every night, got more ice time and also a splendid partner in Bouchard on what was more or less a full-time third pairing. Heavily sheltered in their deployment, the duo posted outstanding shot and goal shares.
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But then came the big trade that shifted out righty Tyson Barrie for lefty Mattias Eklund and changed the balance of the corps. The Oilers continued to run a 7-man group most nights, but now Broberg was a clear #7, behind Nurse, Ekholm and Brett Kulak on the left side. His minutes diminished, and his confidence took a hit as well.
Come playoff time, he was an afterthought, dressing more nights than not but never once playing even 10 minutes in a game. 2 years in North America, and still his coaches seemed unsure how to get the best out of him.
On the season, Borberg played just 12% of his 5v5 minutes against Elite opposition. The only guys a in his neighbourhood were fellow youngsters Niemelainen and Desharnais, both around 15%, then Bouchard at 20%. That tells a tale of how gingerly the Oilers coaching staff treated all of their young d-men, young Broberg most of all.
Alas, it also speaks against the likelihood of the Swede to suddenly elevate into a top 4 role in 2023-24, possibly playing his weak side with either Ekholm or Nurse anchoring the pair on the left. That idea has been floated by some, including the writer at one point, but Broberg has some proving to do before it’s likely to happen. And with all 7 d-men who finished the season set to return, there is no obvious spot for him.
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Expectations for 2023-24: Earn something approaching a full-time role out of camp and, with solid play, work his way up to more minutes and responsibility. His NHL focus to this point has been defence-first, but he has the foot speed and offensive instincts to impact the game at the other end on occasion. With his impressive combo of size, speed and skill, Broberg often leaves the impression that the next step is right around the corner. Time for that fantasy to become a reality.
Seems like Dylan Holloway has been tempting Oilers fans for a long time, but it’s just 3 years since the club selected him at #14 overall in 2020. A late birthday with a year of NCAA puck under his belt on Draft Day, Holloway erupted in Year 2 at University of Wisconsin, tripling his points-per-game from <0.5 to >1.5 while showing ability to dominate the game from the centre position, from the wing, and in a variety of manpower states. His speed and determination to dispossess opponents of the puck in all 3 zones was mouthwatering.
Alas, just before he turned pro at the end of the season, he endured a nasty injury to his scaphoid bone that led to 2 different surgeries and caused a long delay in his pro debut in 2021-22. He did make a strong impression in Bakersfield, scoring 22 points in 33 games as a 20-year-old. He made his NHL debut, albeit a brief one, in Edmonton’s final game of the season against Colorado.
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Holloway was the talk of the town that fall. He was outstanding in the rookie tournament, then carried it into the preseason when he led the Oilers in scoring with 4-2-6 in 5 games. By all appearances he was ready to make the big step.
Then the regular season began, and the Oilers began playing teams that were 4 lines and 3 pairings deep in NHL players, many of them guys who bided their time through camp before ramping up their game when points were on the line. Life became a lot tougher for the Oilers rookie, all the more so when he was absolutely crushed by Buffalo’s Ilya Lyubushkin in Game 4. Holloway missed a few games after that, and was maybe a bit tentative after his return. He dressed almost every night, but often played in the range of 6 minutes. And there he remained, despite the club’s insistence they wanted him playing big minutes in either Edmonton or Bakersfield.
Holloway played 51 games through Feb 15 before finally being sent to the AHL in a cap crunch when Kailer Yamamoto was activated from injured reserve. Alas, he got banged up in his very first game in the AHL and missed the next 5 weeks, effectively torpedoing his chances to return to the Oilers.
He did not experience anything resembling the quarterly milestones that marked Broberg’s season. To monitor his progress, I simply split his 51 GP into 3 equal segments.
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Fair to conclude that the 21-year-old was hardly an offensive dynamo. He scored but once in his first 35 games (a third period tying goal in Madison Square Garden against the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, mind), but at least he was trending upwards near the end of his stint in Edmonton. At one point he managed 2-3-5, +6 in a 7-game span, before again falling silent for 9 straight games before his demotion.
Promise? Yes, a ton. Consistency? Still a work in progress. Holloway had some fine moments but also his fair share of rookie mistakes: bad turnovers, inopportune penalties, things of that nature. His coaches limited his minutes, and as with Broberg sheltered him heavily. Holloway played just 16% of his minutes against high-end comp.
The best news about this player is his track record of excelling in his second year at whatever level.
He exploded in his second year with Okotoks of the AJHL, leading the league in points-per-game at 1.66 after being a shade under 1 his rookie season. He erupted in his second NCAA year as described above. This past year in Bakersfield he came within a goal of equaling his rookie total in barely a third of the games.
In Edmonton? 1 year to his credit so far, with every reason to expect a surge in Year 2.
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Expectations in 2023-24: Grab a spot on the team and begin his rise through the ranks. A top 9 role is certainly within his grasp, and there’s a top 6 spot available for someone to make his own. That may be a more realistic goal another year down the line, but the time to start making his case is right away. Holloway may be the most interesting wild card in camp.
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Follow me on Twitter @BruceMcCurdy
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