Three Challenges Francis Suarez Will Face Running For President

Francis Suarez, the 45-year-old Republican mayor of Miami and poli-nepo-baby, introduced Thursday he’s working for president. Leaping into the already-crowded and rising GOP major pool, Suarez might want to discover a solution to stand out and break by way of with voters. Suarez is kicking off his marketing campaign with a six-figure digital advert purchase in Iowa, New Hampshire and, notably, Nevada, an early state with a major Latino inhabitants. It is a sign that the first-generation Cuban-American hopes being the one Latino main candidate within the race will probably be a part of what makes him stand out from the gang. 

However discovering a message that differentiates Suarez from 9 different Republican candidates isn’t his solely problem. As a mayor of a mid-sized metropolis, a Republican who has refused to worship on the altar of former President Donald Trump, and a little bit of a crypto-bro, Suarez has his work minimize out for him on this marketing campaign. 

Problem No. 1: Mayors wrestle to realize nationwide recognition

Inside the metropolis of Miami, Suarez is well-known and seemingly effectively appreciated. After serving as a metropolis commissioner, Suarez was elected in 2017 with 86 p.c of the vote and reelected in 2021 with 79 p.c of the vote. In a 2020 ballot, on the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Suarez had a 68 p.c approval score. 

However outdoors of Florida, Suarez has little or no identify recognition. You could not have heard of him till this week — or maybe he’s lodged in your mind as one of many first U.S. elected officers to contract COVID-19. In truth, in each ballot thus far (so, previous to him saying his marketing campaign) that features him as a possible candidate, Suarez has obtained 0 p.c help. 

This isn’t distinctive to Suarez — presidential candidates whose highest prior workplace was mayor have all the time had a more durable hill to climb than candidates who had been governors or members of Congress. Whereas a small variety of presidents had been mayors at one level of their political careers, all of them held larger workplace earlier than working for the massive job. A mayor has by no means received a significant get together nomination for president, not to mention received the overall election, and few have even tried. 

And regardless of his total recognition, Suarez has had his share of native scandals just lately: Reporting from the Miami Herald revealed the mayor — who can be a company and real-estate lawyer — had labored as a non-public marketing consultant for a developer that sought metropolis corridor approvals for a constructing challenge. Suarez has mentioned he didn’t intervene or use his place to assist anybody, however the relationship is being investigated by the FBI.

Problem No. 2: He’s not very Trumpy

Although he has been a registered Republican because the age of 18, Suarez hasn’t fairly fallen in keeping with the trendy GOP. He has publicly not supported the 2 largest front-runners within the Republican major: He mentioned he didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020, nor did he vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2018 (he caved and voted for DeSantis in 2022). His insurance policies stay conservative (reducing taxes and protecting them low has been a spotlight of his administration, for instance), however he takes a barely extra average stance on points like local weather change and immigration. Miami, as a coastal metropolis, is at a number of the highest danger of influence of rising sea ranges, and Suarez has acknowledged this danger, declaring a local weather emergency in 2019 and investing in infrastructure to make town extra resilient to flooding. It’s additionally a metropolis with a inhabitants that’s majority immigrants, together with Suarez’s personal mother and father, that means a hardline, Trump-style nativist stance was by no means going to be a preferred place for the mayor. He’s argued that asylum-seekers from Venezuela ought to be provided short-term protected standing, and he thinks his get together should take a extra average stance on immigration total, with much less give attention to the border and extra on authorized pathways to immigration.  

Suarez has mentioned he’s had his Republican bona fides questioned prior to now — “I get criticized for that generally, like not passing a purity check of some kind,” he instructed The New Yorker in October — and his distance from Trump and Trump-like politics places him at a drawback in a major the place three-quarters of voters are backing both the previous president or the hard-core conservative DeSantis. And early polling exhibits Republican major voters care extra about ideological purity than they do about different issues, like electability. Suarez isn’t the one GOP candidate pivoting away from the Trump lane, however any candidate not toeing the populist get together line will face a more durable time successful over voters within the major.

Problem No. 3: No person likes a crypto-bro

Should you had heard of Suarez earlier than his presidential run and it wasn’t for getting COVID-19, it may need been for his fame for courting Huge Tech to maneuver to Miami. In December 2020, enterprise capitalist Delian Asparouhov tweeted, “okay guys hear me out, what if we transfer silicon valley to miami.” Suarez jumped, quote-tweeting Asparouhov with the query, “How can I assist?” It was a minor second on Twitter that day, however it additionally genuinely kicked off discussions which have since led to a number of main tech entities and founders establishing store within the Magic Metropolis, together with Blackstone and Elliott Administration. He’s additionally been bullish on cryptocurrency: Suarez has obtained his mayoral wage in bitcoin since 2021, lured main crypto conferences to town and final yr unveiled a crypto bull sculpture within the model of the Wall Road bull.

However Suarez’s crypto fandom could also be seen as a destructive to voters. A part of his flirtation with the trade included convincing FTX, the cryptocurrency alternate, to maneuver its headquarters to Miami … till the corporate went bankrupt and its founder was charged with fraud. And total, most People don’t have a good view of cryptocurrency — simply 8 p.c have a constructive view of crypto, based on a CNBC All-America Financial Survey from December (across the time of the FTX founder’s arrest). That is significantly true of Republicans, who polls present lack belief within the trade. In a YouGov/The Economist ballot, additionally from December, 45 p.c of Republicans mentioned cryptocurrency was a “very unsafe” funding, in contrast with 41 p.c of Democrats and 35 p.c of independents. And 43 p.c of Republicans mentioned it was considerably or impossible that cryptocurrency will ever turn out to be a dependable type of cost in a Morning Seek the advice of ballot from March. Having a lot of his mayoral identification related to a precarious trade that voters don’t belief could also be yet one more impediment Suarez has to beat.

Mary Radcliffe contributed analysis.