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Cult of Hockey
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Darnell Nurse, one of many NHL’s most beneficial d-men 12 months in, 12 months out?
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Nah, that may’t be.
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He’s manner overpaid, proper? He’s not near being a prime passer, not to mention an influence place ace. And he’s too erratic making choices, right? Wanders in all places, proper?
Possibly I’m unsuitable right here nevertheless it strikes me that for each fan of the Edmonton Oilers who sees Darnell Nurse as a stable top-pairing d-man and a surefire member of the following Crew Canada, there’s a fan who hates how a lot he’s getting paid and believes the Oilers would doubtless be higher off with out him.
He’s a lightning rod participant on the group.
As for my very own take, I’ll recommend that Nurse was under-paid for years and that whereas it’s a stretch for any non-power enjoying d-men to be value a cap hit of $9.25 million, Nurse got here very shut in 2022-23.
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He went by means of a nasty defensive droop for a month or two this season, however total he’s had his finest season as a two-way participant at even power.
Particularly, his play picked up within the final month of the season, when he performed a number of the finest hockey of his NHL profession. His defensive and offensive reads had been sharp. He moved the puck quick and good. He defended with each aggression and acumen, virtually all the time sustaining good defensive place, preserving a detailed eye on opposition hazard males in entrance of his personal web. He stopped making so many ill-advised offensive jaunts, simplified his recreation and excelled. He regarded like a real No. 1 NHL d-man, which gave the Oilers two such gamers on the left aspect, the Two Towers of the Oil defence, Nurse and Mattias Ekholm.
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The Two Towers will make for a formidable left aspect one-two-punch within the 2023 playoffs.
In fact, I’m not going to persuade anybody else with my tackle Nurse, and there are few statistics that I can pull out that may transfer doubters in such a debate. With forwards, you possibly can all the time depend on good previous objectives and assists to make your level. They’re dependable indicators of offensive prowess. However it’s exhausting to search out such dependable indicators of defensive success.
Some individuals put lots of inventory in team-based numbers, comparable to what number of pictures in opposition to or objectives in opposition to a group faces when a sure defender is on the ice. I’m not persuaded by this sort of data as a result of should you’re enjoying with a bunch of defensively leaky teammates, the pictures and objectives in opposition to will come your manner, and also you’ll get the blame, even should you did nothing unsuitable. By way of a season, anybody participant could be saddled with inconsistent or weak line-mates, which is able to drive up pictures and objectives in opposition to counts.
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Over a full season, a given participant will play with 20+ teammates over time, all of them inconsistent, which significantly confounds issues. By probability, a participant may taken the ice extra typically than others with line-mates who’re injured, missing confidence and slumping, which is able to drive up pictures and objectives in opposition to counts.
Find out how to price d-men then? Find out how to price defensive play?
On the Cult of Hockey we break down videotape of all Grade A pictures for and in opposition to the Oilers to determine which gamers make particular person errors on Grade A pictures and objectives in opposition to, in addition to particular person contributions to Grade A pictures for. It’s not an ideal option to assess gamers, nevertheless it’s our greatest effort to be honest and correct in evaluating Oilers gamers.
By this metric, Nurse simply had his finest season, reducing down on his main errors in opposition to (comparable to turnovers, misplaced battles, allowed slot passes and pictures, and unhealthy line modifications) whereas making extra main contributions for on Grade A pictures (slot pictures, passes into or within the slot, and key battles gained).
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Ekholm was the Oil’s finest d-man by this metric this 12 months, adopted by his accomplice Bouchard, an elite puck-mover, then Nurse, however Nurse and his accomplice Cody Ceci confronted the hardest competitors of any d-men on the Oilers, which might negatively impression their Grade A numbers and ought to be stored in thoughts.
We’ve been doing this video assessment work on Grade A pictures on Oilers video games since 2010-11. However we don’t have the manpower to do this sort of video assessment on all gamers within the NHL. It’s a problem simply to maintain up with the Oilers video games. So to for me to get a way of the place Nurse and Ekholm rank in opposition to different NHL d-men is a problem, particularly if I’m going to take action with stats.
5 stats that paint an image
I’ve discovered {that a} mixture of 5 stats, nevertheless, does present a stable record of which NHL d-men are finest in any given season. In fact, others are free to make use of their very own stats and make their very own record. They will use no matter numbers they like, however my problem for them is that this: should you go solely by these stats, does your record make sense? Does it cross the odor check? Does it appear like a listing of the particular finest NHL d-men? In devising my very own course of and record, I attempted completely different stats till I discovered the 5 that gave me what I assumed regarded just like the consensus finest d-men within the NHL, and I’ve gone with that course of for 4 years.
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The 5 stats are: even power time-on-ice per recreation, to measure how a lot their very own coach trusts them with main ice-time; short-handed ice time per recreation, as a form of proxy for defensive prowess, as leaky d-men are not often employed on the PK; extra time ice-time per recreation, as that is the place the coach actually desires to get his finest two-way gamers on the ice; factors price at even power, an affordable proxy for offence in that recreation state; and factors price on the ability play, one other affordable proxy for offence.
Once more, I’m not saying this can be a excellent option to price defenders. Mixing in a stable high quality of competitors quantity would doubtless be a good suggestion, for instance. That mentioned, as a back-of-the-envelope option to establish essentially the most trusted and most efficient d-men within the NHL, it seems to work.
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This 12 months, it recognized Cale Makar because the NHL’s finest d-man, with Erik Karlsson at quantity two, and Roma Josi, Miro Heiskanen, Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes, Mikhail Sergachev, Devon Toews, Adam Fox and Alex Pietrangelo rounding out the Prime Ten.
Nurse and Ekholm? They completed 14th and forty third total.
In earlier season, Nurse completed 18th within the mixed 2018-19/2019-20 rating, second total within the COVID season of 2020-21, and ninth total in 2021-22.
In different phrases, based on this rating system, he’s performed on the stage of a stable No. 1 d-man within the NHL for 5 seasons now. He’s not been pretty much as good as Makar, Karlsson, Roman Josi, Devon Toews, Adam Fox and (till he took a slide this 12 months) Victor Hedman.
However he’s been rattling good.
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Darnell Nurse is a stable No. 1 d-man within the NHL — and he’s prone to stay one for a number of years to come back. That’s not a preferred opinion with many followers, nevertheless it’s how I see it. And I’ll go to date to foretell that if he’s wholesome this playoff season (he wasn’t final 12 months), he’s going to go a great distance in cementing his credentials as an elite NHLer. Playoff success will do this.
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