The political prospects of Jokowi’s sons

The 2 sons of Indonesian President Joko Widodo are mentioned to be plotting their political futures, as their father is ready to enter retirement after the presidential elections in February 2024. In the event that they do, it might solely cement perceptions that Jokowi is looking for to construct a political dynasty. How Jokowi’s two sons carry out on the political scene may have a bearing on the legacy of the president and his household post-2024.

Gibran Rakabuming, the president’s eldest son and incumbent mayor of Surakarta (Solo), is eyeing increased political workplace: both the governorship of Jakarta or Central Java. Gibran’s youthful brother Kaesang Pangarep is alleged to eyeing an preliminary entry into politics by campaigning for the mayorships of Depok or South Tangerang, each economically necessary cities inside larger Jakarta. (Bobby Nasution, the president’s son-in-law, is at the moment the mayor of Medan, Indonesia’s fourth-largest metropolis.)

Gibran is taking a look at utilizing his high-profile place as mayor of Solo to run for a gubernatorial seat in 2024. He may very well be eyeing the governorship in Central Java—a job at the moment held by Ganjar Pranowo, the who has secured the Democratic Occasion of Battle’s (PDI-P’s) nomination for the 2024 presidential election.

A second choice could be for Gibran to contest for the governorship of Jakarta. If Gibran decides to run there, he would have the ability to construct on his father’s legacy. Throughout his tenure as governor from 2012 to 2014, Jokowi accelerated building of the capital’s mass transportation system, enhanced its flood administration system and initiated enchancment packages in casual settlements.

In accordance with the newest survey outcomes, Gibran has the lead amongst potential candidates for the Central Java contest scheduled for late 2024, whereas there are as but no public surveys that gauge Gibran’s prospects for the Jakarta contest.

Because it stands, there are larger prospects of Gibran working in Central Java slightly than Jakarta. Solo, which is a part of Central Java province, has a comparatively homogenous Javanese ethnic demographic and a big Christian minority. This is able to favour somebody with Gibran’s robust Javanese and secular background,  in a context the place aliran-based political–cultural identities and rivalries are nonetheless influential in figuring out many peoples’ voting behaviour. Jakarta, in the meantime, has a extra heterogenous demographic and is extra complicated politically—and isn’t the PDI-P stronghold that Central Java is. The capital, particularly for the reason that rise of Anies Baswedan within the 2017 gubernatorial election, has currently develop into the bottom of conservative Muslim voters, which might be an impediment for Gibran.

Securing the Central Java gubernatorial seat might imply rather a lot for Gibran, because it may very well be a launchpad for the presidency, with the province being house to virtually 28 million enrolled voters. If Gibran succeeds in Central Java, this is able to bolster PDI-P’s already robust maintain on the province. Together with Bali, West Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, and a few Jap Indonesian areas, persevering with a report of landslide victories in Central Java is essential to serving to the PDI-P sustain its seat rely within the nationwide and native parliaments, and helps protect the nationalistic and pluralistic picture of the get together.

As Gibran weighs his gubernatorial choices, his youthful brother Kaesang Pangarep is alleged to be eyeing the mayorships in Depok or Southern Tangerang as a part of the spherical of native elections scheduled for later in 2024. Whereas Kaesang is at the moment not a member of any political get together, his current hints of his political ambitions has attracted the eye of numerous political events fascinated by recruiting him. Particularly, PDI-P, which already counts his older brother, brother-in-law and father in its ranks, is eager to recruit Kaesang.

Kaesang, a businessman, YouTuber and soccer membership proprietor, could be anticipated to draw younger voters in Depok, a satellite tv for pc metropolis in southern Jakarta. His social media postings expressing whimsical attitudes, life within the presidential household, and collaborations with content material creators, stand-up comedians and celebrities have helped him to achieve many followers in social media. Kaesang’s profile additionally suits Depok’s demographic of educated voters and younger professionals. Though Depok is part of West Java, it has all the time been thought of as nearer to Jakarta, which could encourage PDI-P to seize Depok within the native election subsequent yr.

However a run for the Depok mayorship shouldn’t be with out dangers. Depok has been a bastion for the Affluent Justice Occasion (PKS) for the reason that first direct mayoral contest in 2005. Since then, the mayoral seat has all the time been occupied by a cadre from the Islamist get together. PDI-P has been defeated by PKS a number of occasions when it tried to win the mayoral seat in Depok, and the 2 events have maintained a political spat over PDI-P’s criticism of PKS’ governance of town, particularly the administration of gasoline costs. But PKS has many loyal voters and get together networks throughout town, and PDI-P’s loss in Depok would possible replicate its unsure prospects of profitable seats in Bandung, Bogor and Bekasi, different cities in West Java house to giant Muslim voter bases who share household ties or identical Islamic teachings, and the place PKS holds native legislative majorities.

With Kaesang’s possibilities in Depok unsure, one other political choice is that he runs for the mayoral contest in Solo if his elder brother Gibran decides to gun for the governorship in Central Java. As President Jokowi’s household has robust approval scores in Solo, Kaesang could be appropriate to construct on the legacy of his father and elder brother, particularly given thatdynasticism amongst Solo residents stays typically acceptable and most residents  are in favour of Gibran’s potential run for Central Java. Underneath Gibran’s tenure Solo’s infrastructure, symbolised by the Shekih Zayed Al-Nahyan mosque and a brand new elevated railway, has been improved. Gibran has additionally revitalised town’s cultural and small enterprises centre.

Each Gibran and Kaesang are more and more seen because the political successors of their father. The issue right here is that nobody within the Jokowi household, together with the president, holds a strategic place inside the PDI-P get together construction on the nationwide and native ranges. Whereas PDI-P would possibly wish to capitalise on the electability of Jokowi’s sons, it might additionally must take care of their potential “independence”, as is the case with the daddy. This would possibly complicate the political trajectories for his sons, particularly after he leaves workplace in October 2024. To spice up their political careers sooner or later, each of them could be well-advised to safe a extra strategic place inside the get together’s construction.