Greater than a 12 months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU nonetheless imports pure gasoline and uranium from Russia, including to Vladimir Putin’s struggle chest.
The response to the Ukraine struggle, which incorporates an accelerated transition to renewable energies, has made the EU extra depending on China. This nation dominates the availability chains for crucial uncooked supplies in addition to the photo voltaic panels, batteries and magnets constructed from them.
Thus we’re caught between two aggressive autocracies.
To interrupt free from this Catch-22, European policymakers have jettisoned plenty of dogmas, akin to limitless free commerce. One dogma nonetheless stands nonetheless: that of financial development. But, a ‘slower’ financial system would enable the EU to cut back its over-reliance on imported power and supplies extra quickly. For example, a push for energetic and shared mobility in addition to public transport, driving again non-public automotive possession, would considerably mood European demand for crucial metals.
There’s an much more highly effective cause to cease pursuing development. Science is more and more expressing doubt as as to whether continued GDP development is suitable with a habitable planet. “It’s unlikely {that a} long-lasting, absolute decoupling of financial development from environmental pressures and impacts might be achieved on the international scale”, based on the European Environmental Company.
‘Inexperienced development’ appears an phantasm. Therefore the current reputation of the ‘Degrowth’ motion — which advocates a shift from accumulating materials wealth to residing inside planetary boundaries in a extra equal society centered on well-being, together with by means of the availability of high-quality public providers.
It is sensible for the EU to be a frontrunner within the transition to a post-growth society. Firstly, as a matter of ecological justice. EU international locations bear the best historic duty for the crises of local weather and biodiversity. Abandoning financial development would unencumber pure sources for the World South, the place development nonetheless contributes to well-being.
Secondly, a post-growth EU would acquire in resilience. It’s higher to handle the top of development by means of democratic deliberation than to have it imposed on us by ecological breakdown or useful resource conflicts.
Nonetheless, a resilient EU should have the ability to face up to not solely ecological shocks or commerce disruptions, but in addition navy aggression.
In the present day, the battle between democracy and autocracy performs out grimly earlier than our eyes in Ukraine. Critics of financial development can not look away from the menace posed by militant authoritarianism, as there isn’t a doubt that the transition past development should be democratic.
Will a post-growth EU have the ability to defend itself, its allies, democracy, human rights and a rules-based worldwide order towards assaults by the likes of Russia or China?
The ability of nations and alliances is often measured by their GDP and navy capabilities. The Ukraine struggle largely confirms this metric. With out billions in western assist, each cash and arms, Ukraine wouldn’t have the ability to maintain out towards the Russian aggressor, who’s intent on destroying the European safety order. Seen this manner, a post-growth EU makes itself weak.
The primary solution to enhance resilience in issues of struggle and peace is to cut back the waste of sources in exterior motion.
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Too typically, European diplomacy is a cacophony of nationwide self-inflation. European defence is suffering from fragmentation, duplication and lack of interoperability between nationwide armed forces. A post-growth EU would wish to set off for deeper integration.
This consists of strong oversight of democracy and the rule of legislation inside its borders, no extra vetoes in international and safety coverage, talking with one voice and getting severe about defence integration. The higher the member states’ navy forces match collectively, the extra bang we get for our buck.
Within the international confrontation between democracy and autocracy, the US could defect from our camp on the subsequent presidential election, if Trump or a Trumpist prevails. Both manner, the US will more and more give attention to threats from China slightly than Russia. The EU has no selection however to cut back its safety dependence on the US.
Plugging defence functionality gaps by means of the joint improvement and procurement of recent weapon programs requires recent cash. So do sustaining Ukraine’s defence, decarbonising the armed forces and upholding a complete safety strategy, together with assist for local weather motion and poverty discount within the World South.
For an EU with out GDP development, this may be a big invoice to foot, however the degrowth motion rightly locations the frequent good above extra non-public consumption.
A post-growth EU would do nicely to incorporate defence, diplomacy and international help within the checklist of high-quality public providers it pursues.
For an EU past development, discovering allies could be all of the extra necessary. They convey extra sources and legitimacy. Enlarging the Union would develop into an excellent stronger geopolitical crucial. Such an EU must accommodate a ‘inexperienced development’ coverage for acceding international locations searching for to slim the prosperity hole with the older member states, or rebuilding after struggle.
Ukraine, if it survives the Russian onslaught with our assist, may very well be a formidable EU companion, each by way of civil braveness and navy power.
Abandoning GDP development can and should present a powerful impetus for strengthening and enlarging the EU. Such an EU may nicely be ‘spartan’ in multiple sense. But when we maintain social fairness in thoughts, that isn’t too excessive a worth for safeguarding our democracy and enhancing our ecological and geopolitical resilience. The EU would nonetheless be probably the greatest locations on the earth to dwell in.
