At the time of writing, like 100,445 other people, I had an important appointment: the UN Conference of Parties on climate change, COP28. We have just returned from Dubai, United Arab Emirates, where negotiators achieved a historic result and, against all odds, mentioned fossil fuels in the agreed outcome, blaming them for global warming. The text, known as the UAE consensus, is not perfect. Observers noted that the language adopted contained too many loopholes and was not strong enough, particularly in light of the differences between developing and developed countries. Next year, a “Roadmap to Mission 1.5C” will be launched to strengthen international cooperation in the run-up to COP30 in Brazil.
Since its announcement, the location of this COP in a major oil-producer country was considered a bad omen, or a paradoxical choice, to say the least. In this article on Orient XXI, critics question whether the model of growth, reliant on carbon and gigantism, is anachronistic. The piece suggests exploring alternatives focused on equality, sobriety, traditional knowledge, and new development models.
At the same time, it represented one more reason to keep the lights on its process.
That’s what The Guardian has been doing, with a couple of game-changer stories by Damian Carrington.
The first revealed Saudi Arabia was orchestrating a global investment initiative to boost demand for its oil and gas in developing nations. The initiative, ostensibly presented as enhancing energy access in poorer countries, focused on projects that would end up increasing the consumption of fossil fuels, potentially hindering global efforts to combat climate change.
The second, together with the Centre for Climate Reporting, exposed the president of COP28, Sultan Al Jaber, for dismissing the need of a fossil fuel phase-out to limit global heating to 1.5C compared to pre-industrial levels. Speaking at an online event, Al Jaber claimed there is “no science” behind the assumption and suggested it would instead take the world “back into caves”. I like to think of it as a distorted version of Plato’s myth about Good and its deception.
Scientists quickly replied with this letter, written on behalf of the climate system itself, while Angelo Romano goes through all the reasons why denying climate equals lying, for Valigia Blu.
What would actually threaten life on this planet, however, is what TotalEnergies has been doing. Greenpeace explains here how, despite climate commitments, it actively expanded fossil fuels, with over 99% of its 2022 energy production still reliant on oil and gas.
The French fossil fuel giant is in good company in Dubai: according to Le Monde, which quotes the Kick Big Polluters Out, a coalition of 450 environmental NGOs “Nearly 2,500 fossil fuels lobbyists have been accredited for COP28.” – no wonder Alternatives Economiques talks about “a COP under the influence of oil companies.”
Another example is the lobbying pursued by influential food and farming companies, DeSmog found out. Responsible for over a third of global emissions, these firms tried to influence debates, using various tactics from sponsoring pavilions to promoting unproven solutions, hindering regulatory action, write Rachel Sherrington, Clare Carlile and Hazel Healy.
For instance, JBS, the world’s largest meat company, along with Global Dairy Platform and the North American Meat Institute, had a robust presence at the summit. Industry-funded Global Meat Alliance documents stressed promoting “scientific evidence” to support meat consumption. The industry has been trying to counteract an “anti-meat narrative” at COP28.
Katie Marie Davies, for Kyiv Independent, found a significant increase in military spending within Russia’s 2024 budget. Funds for rebuilding annexed Ukrainian regions focus on the mining industry. By designating these areas as “autonomous republics,” Moscow aims to exploit Ukraine’s rich mineral resources, including coal, iron, manganese, titanium, graphite, and uranium.
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Annika Joeres, Katarina Huth, and Elena Kolb for Correctiv wrote about the coal company Leag reportedly wielding significant influence over water supply, endangering Berlin’s drinking water. Leag is the largest water user in Brandenburg, allegedly extracting groundwater and drinking water unhindered. Authorities, including the Brandenburg State Office for Mining, Geology, and Raw Materials, claim they lack the capacity to thoroughly check Leag’s models. The company’s practices, including agreements with cities for confidentiality, raise environmental and water supply concerns.
When you attend COP, or witness the talks from abroad, it does look like climate action is under siege. To a siege, you shall reply with resistance.
For One World, Merel Remkes profiled Joyeeta Gupta, a climate justice advocate and professor of Environment and Development of the Global South at the University of Amsterdam. Awarded the Spinoza Prize, Gupta plans to establish a multidisciplinary justice lab to gather empirical evidence of global action. In her fight for justice, she is not afraid to dream: “There should be a ministry for the Future.”
Something exceptional actually happened just a few hours after COP28 kicked off, which was historical and left all of us amazed and suspicious in equal measure. Delegates adopted a new climate loss and damage fund, a move that immediately led several governments to announce contributions. In this Q&A, Clean Energy Write (CLEW) explains the basics of a pledge made nearly 15 years ago to mobilise $100 billion in climate finance. It’s only a fraction of the total climate finance required, but “it has totemic value as the cornerstone of trust between developed and developing countries”, says CLEW.
In another important commitment made at COP during the first week, leaders from 120 countries have pledged to triple renewable energy capacity to at least 11,000 GW globally, signing up to a Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge. The declaration also contains a commitment to double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements to more than 4% by 2030. Developing renewables is expected to be the new space race. This article, by Jules Besnainou and Suzana Carp for Voxeurop, analyses the EU Green Deal Industrial Plan to support the deployment of clean technologies to challenge the US’s supremacy in this field.
Finally, a word for one of the female preeminent figures of this summit: Spanish Ecological Transition minister Teresa Ribera, representing the EU in negotiations. Asked about missing the EU former Climate commissioner Frans Timmermans, a COP veteran told me he does “but Ribera is so good at her job”. When the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sent a letter in the middle of the final stretch of the negotiation asking to “safeguard their interests”, Ribera bravely declared that “what the OPEC countries are doing is quite nauseating, pushing to delay things.”, reports El Confidencial.
Anyway, and “whatever the outcome of the COP28”, argues Maxime Combes in Mediapart, “this COP has brought to light one of the blind spots in the negotiations on global warming over the last thirty years: the urgent need to move away from fossil fuels if we are to have any chance of staying within 1.5°C or 2°C of global warming.” The French climate and investment economist points at the fact that fossil fuels were not mentioned in the 2015 Paris agreement, because of “Lobbies, denial, inertia and neutrality in negotiations.” The latter meaning that “reducing fossil fuel production is not legally part of the mandate of the climate change negotiations.” Combes concludes that “Whatever the outcome of COP28, keeping fossil fuels in the ground is no longer seen as a far-fetched idea, but as a sine qua non for achieving ‘carbon neutrality’ by 2050. So we urgently need to find a way forward here.”