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Alberto Alemanno is the Jean Monnet Professor of European Union Legislation at HEC Paris and founding father of The Good Foyer, a nonprofit dedicated to equalize entry to energy.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the longest-serving present chief of any European Union member nation, has turned Hungary into an “electoral autocracy” that may not be thought of a “functioning democracy.” And but, Hungary is because of take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU in late 2024.
As this may increasingly lead the bloc into unknown territory, the mere prospect of Hungary’s impending presidency raises a official but uncomfortable query: How can an EU member nation — like Hungary or Poland — which has been present in breach of elementary EU values a number of occasions and had its funds suspended, credibly chair one of many major EU establishments?
The presidency offers its holder the facility to set the Council of the EU’s agenda by chairing just about all conferences going down among the many EU’s 27 ministers, and representing the Council in relations with the opposite establishments. Any authorities holding the presidency is predicted to behave as an “sincere dealer” for the 27 member nations.
Thus, one could marvel how a authorities topic to the Article 7 process for systemically disregarding the EU’s elementary values, and with its EU funds suspended, may chair Council conferences set to deal with these exact same points. As well as, Budapest’s lower than forthright help of Ukraine — to say the least — additional raises the stakes for all the bloc.
The potential for suspending the rotating presidency of a member nation is one thing that has remained confined to tutorial hypothesis for a very long time. But, with the European Parliament now calling on EU leaders to dam Hungary’s presidency by a big majority, as we speak it seems extra doubtless than ever earlier than.
To this finish, a number of choices to change the incoming rotating presidency of a member nation exist already.
One choice is that, by a certified majority vote, all EU member nations change the order of the nations set to carry the presidency. This may occasionally then push Hungary’s entitlement to carry the presidency to an undetermined date, till it has come again into the fold of binding EU norms.
Another route could also be for the 2 governments holding the following two presidencies earlier than Hungary — that’s Belgium and Spain inside the so-called trio system — to amend their inside preparations and alter the agenda of Hungary’s presidency. Consequently, all Council conferences involving rule of legislation (similar to Article 7, the suspension of EU funds, compliance with tremendous milestones, and so on.) may then be overseen by different governments as a substitute. Nevertheless, this could go down in historical past because the Council’s first depleted presidency.
Lastly, but an alternative choice may entail a full suspension of Hungary’s presidency, with Belgium and Spain taking half of Hungary’s six months every, ensuing of their respective rotations lasting 9 months.
Contemplating Hungary’s presidency is ready to start out after the following EU Parliament election, this case for postponement, or suspension, is unlikely to go away anytime quickly, however slightly achieve much more political momentum. And that is much more possible when bearing in mind that the next presidency is because of be held by Poland — one other rebellious member nation, the presidency of which might elevate lots of the similar issues, though not with regards to Ukraine.
Thus, EU leaders on the Council should now reply to the Parliament’s name “to discover a correct resolution as quickly as attainable.” And until they achieve this, the Parliament has threatened to take “applicable measures,” similar to boycotting the operation of Hungary’s forthcoming presidency by decreasing cooperation to a naked minimal.
The prospect of such a stalemate also needs to assist President Ursula von der Leyen’s European Fee understand it can’t fulfill its agenda, if the management of considered one of its fellow establishments is within the arms of a member nation it has blocked from receiving thousands and thousands of euros in EU funds on rule-of-law grounds.
Within the meantime, the German, Dutch and Swedish governments have unexpectedly already expressed some public help for this concept, with Germany’s Minister of State for Europe Anna Lührmann saying, “I’ve doubts in regards to the extent to which Hungary can achieve holding a profitable presidency.” The identical goes for Belgium, Denmark and Cyprus — all set to share the presidency in the identical 12 months as both Hungary or Poland — as their very own reputations are very a lot on the road, contemplating they might be judged as accomplices to the primary rebellious Council presidencies within the bloc’s historical past.
No matter whether or not Hungary’s — after which Poland’s — presidency will ultimately be suspended, nevertheless, the mere actuality of considering such a risk expands the choices obtainable to Brussels, in order that it may nudge rebellious nations to adjust to their obligations beneath EU legislation.
The hostile reactions by the Hungarian and Polish governments recommend they’re each very delicate towards this main problem to their worldwide popularity. And, in flip, this means that merely the specter of impeding the Council presidency of a rebellious member could show to be probably the most efficient devices for Brussels to make the likes of Hungary fall in line.
Finally, blocking Hungary’s presidency isn’t about sanctioning Orbán — it’s about preserving the bloc’s operation and good governance. As such, this unprecedented menace to Hungary — and Poland — seems to be set to immediate a protracted overdue political and authorized debate over whether or not, and for the way lengthy, the EU can tolerate governments that incessantly problem the bloc’s authority whereas persevering with to profit from its standing and funding.
