In short:
If they win tonight, the Blues will be just the sixth NSW side in 23 attempts to take out a men’s State of Origin decider.
NSW has not won a decider in Queensland since 2005 and lost nine of the past 10.
What’s next?
Origin III kicks off at Lang Park at 8:05pm AEST.
Queensland has already won a State of Origin decider this year.
After being outplayed for large chunks of the first two games of the series, the Maroons came out and delivered a masterclass on home turf in the first-ever Women’s Origin decider last month.
Now the men’s team is looking perform a similar feat.
Even with 12 men, NSW looked more dangerous for at least two-thirds of the series opener at Sydney’s Olympic stadium, and utterly steamrolled Game II with a full complement on the field.
It left many wondering what might have been had Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i had better aim in his brutal shot on Reece Walsh in the eighth, and likely final, minute of his State of Origin career.
But he didn’t and both teams recorded one resounding victory each, sending us to a decisive Game III in Brisbane.
ABC Sport will have live blog coverage of State of Origin III tonight from 6.30pm AEST.
Unfortunately for the Blues, deciders have rarely been a happy hunting ground.
Of the 42 completed series since Origin moved to a three-game contest in 1982, 22 series have gone to deciders.
A lot has been written about the Blues having only come out on top in two of those must-win games in enemy territory, but that’s only one fewer than their three victories in Sydney.
When you hear the Blues only have five victories in deciders, compared to Queensland’s 15 wins (plus retaining the shield with draws in 1999 and 2002), it becomes clear that the legend of the Maroons’ never-say-die attitude is more than just myth.
Queensland won the first four — in 1982, ’83, ’87 and ’91 — but just two of the next eight between 1992 and 2005.
That span, when NSW won nine of 14 series, was the most successful in Blues history, led by the like of Laurie Daley, Brad Fittler and Andrew Johns.
Also contained within that stretch were the only two times the Blues have travelled north of the border to win a series-deciding Game III.
1994 was supposed to be the swansong for future rugby league Immortal Mal Meninga, the last remaining player from the inaugural Origin match in 1980 who would break the record for the most games played in the decider.
Instead, his Raiders teammates Daley, Ricky Stuart, Brad Clyde and Brett Mullins conspired to give their retiring hero, Benny Elias, the perfect farewell.
Thirteen years later, in 2005, Johns returned from a horror run of injuries that kept him out of the previous year’s series to orchestrate an ambush at Lang Park.
Origin deciders in Brisbane
2021: Qld won 22-122020: Qld won 20-142017: Qld won 22-62015: Qld won 52-62012: Qld won 21-202011: Qld won 34-242005: NSW won 32-102001: Qld won 40-14*1999: 10-10 draw (Qld retained)1994: NSW won 27-121991: Qld won 14-121987: Qld won 10-81983: Qld won 43-22
* Played at QEII Stadium
The Blues scored six straight tries, including a hat-trick to winger Matt King, and coasted the remaining 15 minutes to a 32-10 victory.
It was NSW’s third straight series win and, according to some pundits, so complete was the domination that the very concept of State of Origin was under threat.
Not only did the Maroons win the decider the following year, they rattled off eight straight series victories and 11 of 12 from 2006 to 2017 in a golden era led by Darren Lockyer, Cameron Smith, Johnathan Thurston, Greg Inglis, Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and coach Meninga.
Mixed in along the way were seven victories in deciders, with two more in 2020 and 2022.
All told, since Johns’s famous return in 2005, the Blues have won only one decider from 10 — in 2019 when James Tedesco scored a stunning last-second try in front of 82,000 fans at Stadium Australia in Sydney.
The Maroons have history on their side, right down to the way the series has played out, with a series-opening win followed by an embarrassment on neutral ground in Game II
The same thing happened when they bounced back from a 44-12 loss in Perth to claim a famous victory in 2022.
The parallels were clear to the Queenslanders straight after this year’s drubbing at the MCG, while NSW coach Michael Maguire has instilled or harnessed an attitude in his team this year that anything is possible and if someone is going to make history then it may as well be us.
“It can be done,” he said after Game II.
“If this group gets together like they have, there’s no reason why things can’t happen.”
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