Last month, the IMD had forecast above-normal rainfall during the June-September southwest monsoon season. (Image for representation: PTI/File)
The IMD said the onset of monsoon is not early but near normal, as the normal date is June 1. Last month, it was forecast that India will witness above-normal rainfall in the June-September rainy season
The much-awaited southwest monsoon could make its onset over Kerala on 31st May, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The four-month season is crucial for the agrarian economy of India, which heavily depends on the monsoon rains to provide nearly 75% of the annual rains over the country. The seasonal rains typically set in over the southern tip of India on June 1 with a deviation of around seven days. Last year, the monsoon had set in on 8 June, later than the 4th June prediction by the IMD.
This time, the monsoon onset is expected to be near-normal. It’s important to note that the current onset date of June 1 announced by IMD carries a model error of +/-4 days.
The latest forecast suggests it could advance into the South Andaman Sea, some parts of the Southeast Bay of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands around 19th May. This comes as good news after an extremely hot April and May, with record-breaking temperatures being recorded in several states. The monsoon’s advancement over the country in June is set to bring relief from searing heat waves that have taken a toll over large parts of the country. After affecting the eastern and southern states, the unbearable heat has now advanced to Northwest India as well.
This year, the weather department has predicted above-normal rains for the country during June to September due to favorable weather conditions. According to the forecast, the monsoon is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm, with a model error of +/-5%.
IMD will also issue its second long-range forecast for the monsoon in the last week of May, predicting geographical distribution which varies widely across India.
IMD is confident of good monsoon rains this year due to favorable conditions. El-Nino, a scientific phenomenon associated with the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean which tends to have an adverse impact on the monsoon rains, is also expected to reduce and transition into neutral conditions, which augurs well for the monsoon. It is likely to further turn into La Nina during the second half of the monsoon around August-September.
Meanwhile, above-normal temperatures continue to scorch several states, with Northwest India bracing for another spell of heatwaves around 16th May, with temperatures set to rise by 3-4 degrees Celsius over the next few days. This includes Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and Rajasthan.
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