This paper shares the results of an exercise hosted by the RAND Corporation to explore the risk of escalation from Chinese activities in the gray zone to conventional war. The results showed an overall low risk of Taiwanese escalation because of Chinese military power and Chinese and U.S. constraints on Taiwan’s decisionmaking. The exercise’s U.S. team would consider escalation to military force only if Taiwan faced an existential threat, and the Taiwan team would not escalate without U.S. support.
Further, the U.S. team was significantly more willing to intervene and provided more support when Taiwan took steps to defend itself in line with U.S. strategy. The two countries face a prisoner’s dilemma in that their security strategies hinge on one another, but each side is waiting for the other to signal deeper commitment before further implementing mutually beneficial policies.
This research was sponsored by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Conference proceeding series. RAND conference proceedings present a collection of papers delivered at a conference or a summary of the conference.
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