War offers no solution for peace in our world; instead, it brings about unfathomable destruction and loss to humanity. It serves as a stark reminder that lasting peace can only be achieved through alternative means, such as dialogue, understanding, and cooperation. As once said by Ban Ki-moon, “The cost of war is not only measured in human lives, but also in the destruction of entire communities, the displacement of families, and the shattering of dreams.”
20 Oct 1962 – 21 Nov 1962.
As global dynamics evolve, nations face diverse challenges to maintain their territorial integrity and forge peaceful coexistence with their neighbours. The Republic of India, with its rich history and vibrant democracy, finds itself in a unique position. It shares borders with neighbouring countries that support extremist ideologies, exhibits aggressive tendencies, and demonstrates little or no regard for respecting established borders and territorial sovereignty. In the face of these challenges, India has steadfastly pursued a path of resilience, diplomacy, and commitment to upholding peace by fighting against terrorism.
WHAT THE SITUATION OF TAIWAN AND CHINA MEANS FOR THE WORLD?
China evidently believes in an expansionist theory and the leadership blindly follows the views of Mao Zedong. However, it can be noted that China’s foreign policy and interests have evolved over time. Being a communist and authoritarian regime, it is quite normal for the country to take bold decisions and actions which support the narrative of the leadership even though how many people in the nation oppose it. The relationship between China and Taiwan is complex and contentious as China considers Taiwan as part of its territory, while Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state. Geopolitically, China’s rising power and influence have enabled it to exert pressure on Taiwan, isolating it diplomatically. Taiwan seeks to strengthen its global presence, forge alliances, and diversify its economic ties. The geopolitical standing of China and Taiwan is influenced by China’s economic and military might, while Taiwan relies on support from democratic nations and its strategic location. The dynamics between China and Taiwan continue to shape the Asia-Pacific geopolitical landscape.
Regarding Taiwan some alarming developments are taking place, French President Emmanuel Macron has surprised allies with his statement that Europe should decrease its reliance on the United States and refrain from being entangled in the tensions between China and the U.S. regarding Taiwan. At a press conference held during the Netherlands state visit, Macron highlighted that France maintains its stance on Taiwan and supports the existing state of affairs for the island. Macron emphasised that France adheres to the One China policy and advocates for a peaceful resolution to the situation in the Pacific. He reaffirmed that this position was conveyed during his private meeting with Xi Jinping and has been consistently expressed in various contexts. The stance of France is not limited to them, as being one of the largest economies in Europe, a nuclear-armed country and a member of the United Nations Security Council, France envisions and represents itself as the voice of the European Union.
“Somewhere Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems. That if it is you, it’s yours, if it is me it is ours. I see reflections of that.”
– S. Jaishankar (External Affairs Minister of India)
On the other side, India has been mute regarding China’s aggression towards Taiwan until today. India has traditionally adhered to the “One China” policy, recognising the People’s Republic of China as the legitimate and the only government of China. India has refrained from taking a formal position on the Taiwan issue and has maintained diplomatic relations with both China and Taiwan. The United States government under Donald J. Trump maintained an aggressive position against China, and also made consistent efforts in the support of Taiwan. Under Joe Biden, The United States Government is currently in the process of organising the evacuation of American citizens in response to escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait. A U.S. intelligence official revealed that preparations for this evacuation have been ongoing for a minimum of six months and have recently intensified over the past two months. The heightened level of tension in the region has prompted the accelerated implementation of these measures. The official emphasised that several widely reported factors have contributed to this urgency, including China’s increased military presence, Beijing’s alignment with Moscow regarding the conflict in Ukraine, and the invasion by Russia in 2022. These developments have collectively acted as significant motivators for the initiation of the evacuation plan signalling that United States will backoff if China is to invade Taiwan.
Japan, which has a strained relationship with China due to historical ties, is deeply concerned following multiple airspace violations of Taiwan by the People’s Liberation Army. This indicates that China is prepared to annex Taiwan. From a strategic and geopolitical perspective, if China succeeds in taking over Taiwan, it would gain unrestricted access to the Pacific and a convenient route to the disputed Senkaku Islands. Although these islands are currently under Japanese administration, China asserts a significant claim over them, and their proximity to Taiwan, just 220 miles away, further intensifies Japan’s concerns. Since World War II, Japan has maintained a relatively low military expenditure, partially due to a military pact with the USA. However, with the US’s perceived withdrawal of support for Taiwan and its hesitant stance towards China, Japanese analysts fear that they would be left without sufficient backing if China were to pose a threat.
Japan acknowledges the importance of standing with Taiwan, but the immense pressure exerted by China has made it challenging for any country to oppose its actions. The reluctance of nations to support Taiwan may ultimately pose a significant threat to their own security, as a country with expansionist ambitions could potentially target their territories. China’s projected status as the world’s largest economy and its growing military strength make it even more formidable, making it difficult for countries to openly oppose or condemn its actions.
Moreover, The Taiwan military recently released a defence handbook aimed at distinguishing between Chinese and Taiwanese soldiers based on their uniforms, camouflage, and insignia. This handbook incorporates colourful cartoons to illustrate the differences. Notably, one significant change in the handbook involves depicting Taiwanese and Chinese personnel facing each other, with the Chinese soldiers shown wearing lighter olive fatigues and labelled as “enemy soldiers.” China has persistently asserted its intention to bring Taiwan under its control by force, despite strong objections from Taipei. Over the past year, China has significantly escalated its military and political pressure on Taiwan in pursuit of its sovereignty claims in response to this, Taiwan and its people are prepared for any attack and all ready to fight till the very end.
THE CASE OF PAKISTAN
Pakistan is another nuclear-armed country in the Indian Subcontinent, which shares a big history with India. Once a part of India, which was separated from India during its partition. The main analytical reason behind this partition was the “Divide and Rule” policies of the coloniser which was the British. Pakistan has been an epicentre of spreading Terrorism all over the world, from giving shelter to Osama Bin Laden, the mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks, to sponsoring terrorist organisations such as Jaish-e-Mohammad, smuggling of drugs all over the world and promoting separatist movements such as Khalistan.
While Pakistan has also witnessed periods of democratic governance and civilian rule, military interventions have disrupted the democratic process and hindered the development of strong democratic institutions. The aspirations for a stable and prosperous Pakistan are intricately linked to the establishment of a robust democratic system that upholds civil liberties, allows for peaceful transitions of power, and ensures civilian control over the military. Balancing the roles of civilian authorities and the military continues to be a crucial task for Pakistan as it strives for a sustainable democratic future.
Recently, Pakistan has experienced a significant civil unrest situation, with former Prime Minister Imran Khan openly criticizing military rule and rallying supporters to demand fair elections. This unprecedented event has made history, as people are openly challenging their own government and risking their lives in the process. Meanwhile, militant organizations like Tehreek-e-Taliban are actively fighting against the Pakistani army with the aim of taking control of the entire country. Reports from within Pakistan suggest that the government has lost control in certain areas to the Taliban. The country’s economy is deteriorating, and there are concerns about Pakistan being on the brink of collapse.
CHINA – PAKISTAN RELATIONSHIP
The Pakistan-China relationship is a complex and multifaceted alliance that defies simple categorisations. While some argue for an indirect colonial dynamic, a nuanced understanding reveals a deeper interplay of historical ties, economic interdependence, and strategic collaboration. The longstanding friendship between Pakistan and China, marked by mutual support during crises, lays the foundation for their relationship. Projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have increased economic cooperation, though debates exist regarding potential dependencies. Strong defence ties, joint military exercises, and intelligence sharing demonstrate the depth of strategic collaboration between the two nations.
Pakistan, as a predominantly Muslim country and a member of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, has been vocal in condemning atrocities against Islam. However, there has been a notable silence from Pakistan when it comes to the plight of Uighur Muslims in China. This raises questions about Pakistan’s relationship with China, suggesting that it can be seen as a vassal state of China. This situation becomes significant in the context of China’s potential interest in annexing Taiwan. Pakistan’s involvement in terrorist activities and military aggression towards India could serve China’s agenda of keeping India occupied, as India poses a significant threat to China. The ongoing border disputes, both in the Kashmir region and Arunachal Pradesh, further contribute to the concerns in the region. Nevertheless, the rising tensions within Pakistan make it increasingly challenging for the country to take any significant actions against India. Internal conflicts and instability divert attention and resources away from external matters, impacting Pakistan’s ability to actively engage with India on border disputes or other matters of contention.
THREE PIVOTAL DEMOCRACIES
In the upcoming year of 2024, three pivotal democracies – India, the United States, and Taiwan – are poised to hold elections, setting the stage for significant political transitions and shaping the trajectory of these nations. However, amidst this democratic convergence, there exists a looming concern: the potential interference and destabilisation efforts by China, aiming to advance its strategic interests and undermine the integrity of these democratic processes.
China has a track record of employing various tactics to influence elections in foreign countries. These methods include the dissemination of disinformation, cyberattacks, economic coercion, and clandestine operations aimed at manipulating public opinion, fracturing societal cohesion, and eroding trust in democratic institutions. By interfering in the elections of India, the United States, and Taiwan, China could seek to achieve several objectives. First, it may strive to weaken the electoral processes and institutions, eroding public trust and creating divisions within societies. This can lead to a loss of confidence in democratic governance and create opportunities for alternative forms of governance that align more closely with China’s authoritarian model.
Second, by meddling in these elections, China aims to shape the political landscape in its favour, securing friendly governments or leaders who may be more willing to accommodate its interests. This can have far-reaching consequences for regional stability, economic partnerships, and the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region. Furthermore, China’s interference can extend beyond direct involvement in elections themselves. It may utilise its expansive economic influence, technological capabilities, and propaganda machinery to manipulate public opinion, exploit societal fault lines, and amplify divisive narratives to create chaos and undermine democratic norms.
The 2024 elections hold significant importance for the democratic progress of India, the United States, and Taiwan. And, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict presents China with a potential opportunity to forcefully annex Taiwan, taking advantage of the distraction and limited international response. This geopolitical situation provides China with a narrow window of luck and opportunity to exert control over Taiwan. Internally, China is facing challenges under the leadership of Xi Jinping. Disappointment among the Chinese public due to the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the declaration of Xi Jinping as President for life has created divisions within the national party and tarnished the nation’s image. To counter this threat and uphold democratic principles, it is crucial to maintain vigilance and support Taiwan’s sovereignty. Protecting Taiwan’s autonomy serves as a crucial step in defending democratic values and ensuring stability in the region.
IMPORTANCE OF AKSAI CHIN
Aksai Chin, a region located in the eastern part of the disputed territory between India and China, holds significant importance due to its geographical features and the water resources it encompasses.
- Geographical Features: Aksai Chin spans a vast high-altitude desert landscape, primarily consisting of barren plateaus, rugged mountains, and deep valleys. It is a part of the Indian Union Territory of Ladakh situated in the western part of the Tibetan Plateau and shares borders with the Chinese province of Xinjiang. During the Sino-Indian War of 1962, it was illegally annexed by China, and it is still under their control. Its strategic location makes it a vital link between Central Asia and South Asia.
- Water Resources: Aksai Chin is the origin of several rivers and streams that serve as crucial water sources for both India and China. The region contributes to the headwaters of several significant river systems, including the Indus, Shyok, and Karakash rivers. These rivers play a pivotal role in providing water for irrigation, hydropower generation, and sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people downstream.
- Indus River Basin: The Indus River, one of the most significant rivers in the region, originates in the vicinity of Aksai Chin. It flows through parts of India and Pakistan, providing water for agriculture, hydroelectricity generation, and domestic use. Aksai Chin’s influence on the water flow of the Indus River has implications for both India and Pakistan’s water security, as they heavily rely on the river’s resources.
- Hydropower Potential: Aksai Chin’s mountainous terrain offers immense potential for hydropower development. The rivers originating in this region can be harnessed for generating electricity, aiding in meeting the growing energy demands of both India and China. The development of hydropower infrastructure in Aksai Chin has strategic implications for the energy security and economic growth of the surrounding regions.
- Strategic Significance: Aksai Chin’s strategic location and the ongoing territorial disputes between India and China have added to its importance. The region’s proximity to the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) and its connection to other disputed areas, such as the Siachen Glacier and the Pangong Tso Lake, have made it a focal point in geopolitical tensions between the two countries.
Due to the complex nature of the territorial disputes and geopolitical dynamics, the importance of Aksai Chin extends beyond its water resources. It encompasses strategic considerations, national security concerns, and geopolitical rivalries that shape the region’s significance for both India and China. Resolving disputes and ensuring sustainable management of the water resources in Aksai Chin is crucial for fostering stability, cooperation, and sustainable development in the region.
Amid the impending global water scarcity crisis, it is imperative for India to assert control over its water sources, particularly the rivers originating in Aksai Chin. Water’s significance as a vital resource cannot be overstated, and the potential weaponization of water by adversaries during conflicts and expansionist endeavors is a grave concern. Such actions could lead to catastrophic destruction, impeding India’s aspirations as an emerging global power. Allowing China to maintain control over these crucial water resources is untenable, especially considering the pressing global issue of water scarcity.
India’s unique circumstances further highlight the importance of controlling water sources. With a population of 1.4 billion people, India harbors the world’s largest population, heavily reliant on water for daily needs. The country’s proximity to the equator exposes it to the challenges of rising temperatures and their implications for future water levels. As global temperatures continue to rise, India faces risks such as increased evaporation rates, reduced water availability, and heightened water stress. This amplifies the urgency for India to secure control over water sources, including those originating in Aksai Chin, to ensure a sustainable water supply for its vast population.
Considering India’s demographic size, geographical vulnerability to climate change, and the anticipated impact on water resources, safeguarding access to water becomes even more critical for socioeconomic stability, agricultural productivity, and the overall well-being of its people. Therefore, India’s pursuit of control over water sources, particularly those originating in Aksai Chin, is driven not only by geopolitical considerations but also by the imperative to address future water challenges faced by the nation in the context of water scarcity and rising temperatures.
NATIONAL INTEREST OF INDIA
The current circumstances are unfolding in an intriguing manner, as the world’s attention is largely focused on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, this presents a unique geopolitical opportunity for China to seize control of Taiwan. The timing of China’s potential takeover of Taiwan presents a rare opportunity for India as well. While China is focused on Taiwan, its resources and attention would be diverted, making it relatively easier for India to assert its control over Aksai Chin. Moreover, if Taiwan successfully restrains China’s ambitions, it could present an opportune moment for India to address the issue of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.
Taking back Aksai Chin holds greater strategic significance for India compared to addressing the issue of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. On the other hand, the situation in Pakistan is characterised by instability and a trajectory of potential collapse which will eventually get worse, so India can address the issue of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir at a later stage as well. This allows India to prioritise its efforts based on the current geopolitical landscape. Looking ahead, China’s projected growth in economic and military power poses a significant challenge for India. As China surpasses the United States and strengthens its position, reclaiming Aksai Chin becomes increasingly difficult. Thus, seizing the opportunity now to regain Aksai Chin is vital for India’s long-term strategic interests.
India currently enjoys favourable relations with Western nations and has the ability to maintain a check on Pakistan. Consequently, there would be minimal pressure from the West concerning India’s stance and actions in such a situation. Failing to seize this moment would be an absolute geopolitical blunder for India, against our National Interest, as it would mean missing out on a strategic move that may not present itself again in the future. The alignment of these unique circumstances calls for careful assessment and decisive action to maximise India’s geopolitical advantage.
The current geopolitical context favours India’s pursuit of reclaiming Aksai Chin while China’s attention is directed towards Taiwan. This approach ensures that India maximizes its chances of success in securing its territory and strengthens its position vis-à-vis China in the long run. By focusing on Aksai Chin, India can leverage the geopolitical dynamics at play and secure its territorial integrity. This strategic move enables India to establish a stronger position in the region and maintain a deterrent against potential Chinese aggression. Addressing Pakistan Occupied Kashmir can be pursued later, capitalising on the evolving circumstances in Pakistan.
Trade, Inflation & Reserves
Trade, a vital driver of economic growth and stability, would face severe disruptions. The conflict between India and China, coupled with China’s intense focus on Taiwan, would invariably lead to a significant decline, or even a complete halt, in bilateral trade between the countries. This disruption would have far-reaching consequences, as India and China are major trading partners. Supply chains would be severed, businesses would suffer, and economic growth would be hampered as a result of this trade standstill.
Inflation, a concern that arises during times of conflict, would likely become a pressing issue. The increased military expenditures and trade disruptions associated with the conflict would fuel inflationary pressures. The costs of war, such as defence spending and mobilisation efforts, strain the economy and contribute to inflation. Moreover, the disruption of supply chains and diminished production capacities would exacerbate the scarcity of goods, thereby driving up prices. Both India and China would inevitably experience inflationary pressures as a direct consequence of the conflict, which would, in turn, erode the purchasing power of their respective populations.
Furthermore, managing foreign exchange reserves would present a significant challenge during such turbulent times. These reserves play a critical role in stabilising economies, ensuring liquidity, and supporting the value of domestic currencies. The conflict between India and China, combined with China’s simultaneous focus on Taiwan and Pakistan’s internal disputes, would exert immense pressure on the foreign exchange reserves of these countries. The need to mobilise funds for military operations and potential economic crises could deplete reserves, thereby leaving these nations vulnerable to further economic shocks.
It is important to emphasise that this scenario is purely hypothetical, and the actual economic impacts would be contingent upon various factors, such as the duration and intensity of the conflict. Nevertheless, it is evident that the described situation would have profound consequences, not only for the countries directly involved but also for regional stability and the broader global economic landscape.
CONSEQUENCES AND FUTURE
India’s failure to take back Aksai Chin, motivated by concerns over the potential loss of lives and economic implications, would exacerbate the risks it seeks to avoid. By refraining from taking action, India inadvertently empowers China, leading to increased aggression, territorial assertiveness, and an increased likelihood of China gaining leverage over India’s crucial water resources, especially when water scarcity will become a potential trigger for war. Compared to the consequences of not reclaiming Aksai Chin, the resources needed and the potential loss of lives for its reclamation would be relatively minor. However, the long-term threat and costs of inaction on India’s future make it imperative to pursue the reclaiming of Aksai Chin. Moreover, the economic consequences of this inaction would hinder India’s growth prospects. Here are a few potential repercussions:
- Missed Strategic Gains: India may lose the chance to regain control over territories like Aksai Chin or Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, which have long been contentious issues. These regions hold strategic importance for India’s security and territorial integrity.
- Diminished Influence: By not capitalizing on the favorable geopolitical climate, India may witness a decline in its influence and standing on the global stage. The ability to assert its interests and shape regional dynamics could be compromised, potentially affecting its diplomatic leverage.
- Increased Vulnerability: Inaction during this time could leave India vulnerable to potential security threats from its adversaries. Failing to address territorial disputes or assert its regional interests might embolden hostile actors, undermining India’s security and stability.
- Economic Consequences: The geopolitical landscape directly impacts economic opportunities. India’s failure to seize this moment may result in missed prospects for economic growth, investments, and trade partnerships. It could hinder efforts to strengthen the economy and improve the living standards of its people.
- The Critical Water Threat: China’s potential manipulation and control of these water sources originating from Aksai Chin could result in severe consequences for India. This could disrupt the natural water supply, leaving northern India vulnerable to water scarcity, agricultural disruptions, and energy shortages.
- Eroded Regional Balance: In the absence of proactive measures, the regional balance of power may shift unfavorably. This could lead to increased dominance by China and its allies, potentially altering the dynamics in India’s neighborhood and undermining its strategic interests.
It is important for India to carefully assess the risks and benefits of any actions, considering long-term consequences and the potential impact on regional stability, security, and national interests. Proactive engagement, strategic planning, and diplomatic manoeuvring are crucial to navigating this complex geopolitical environment effectively.