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This in from prospect expert Byron M. Bader of Hockey Prospecting, which uses analytics to predict which prospect players will become NHL stars, Bader’s assessment that the prospect pool of the Edmonton Oilers ranks 28th out of 32 NHL teams.
Ouch!
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But this should not be any kind of surprise.
For one thing, Edmonton is in a win-now mode. That means top picks are being traded away, including this year’s 1st pick and last year’s first pick, Reid Schaefer, in the trade that brought in Mattias Ekholm.
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The only playoff teams in Bader’s Top 10 were Minnesota, sixth overall, Seattle, eighth, and New Jersey, ninth. Perennial cup contender Tampa Bay ranks 26th, Vegas 23rd and Boston, 32nd.
Vancouver ranks 30th. What’s their excuse?
It’s also the case that Edmonton’s prospect pool has been sliding in such rankings for a few years now.
It’s no longer propped up by first overall or Top 10 picks.
As recently as May 2021, Bader had Edmonton ranked 12th overall. He noted at that time: “Edmonton has an outstanding looking D prospect in Evan Bouchard, who currently has a star probability of ~90%…. They also have an outstanding goalie prospect in Ilya Konovalov. He has similar numbers as Sorokin, Shesterkin and Vasilevskiy and should turn into something special for the Oilers… McLeod appears to be an NHLer. Holloway is really coming on. Tullio looks good, especially for a guy selected in the 5th round in 2020.”
Bader nailed it with Bouchard, but not with Konovalov, who struggled in the AHL. But Bader isn’t the only prospect analyst who got it wrong with Konovalov, who looked promising after strong play in the KHL.
In May 2022, Bader had the Oilers sliding to 22nd overall: “The top 5 doesn’t have a ton of star potential in it anymore, that’s the big change… A shining light for the Oilers, perhaps surprisingly, is their goaltending prospects. Skinner and Konovalov both show excellent in the model and the data suggests at least one of them should hit as an NHL goalie (they rank #1 by the goalie criteria).”
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Elite Prospects Rinkside had the Oilers pool ranked 25th overall in September 2022. At that same time Corey Pronman of The Athletic had the Oilers ranked 18th overall, with their top prospects being Bouchard, Broberg, Holloway, McLeod and Schaefer, now a Nashville Predator prospect.
In January, 2023, Logan Horn of The Hockey Writers had Edmonton ranked 20th, but that list included Schaefer. Horn liked Broberg as a prospect. “I think he’s an NHL quality defender and has the potential to be a great two-way defender in Edmonton’s top-four.”
At that same time, Scott Wheeler at The Athletic had the Oilers ranked 21st overall. “The Oilers have four legitimate prospects (more than any team to appear in the countdown so far), but their list also drops off as steeply as any in the league, with almost nothing once it reaches double digits…. While this group should produce a handful of NHLers — including maybe some good ones — it’s unlikely to really move the needle for the organization.”
Wheeler’s top four Oilers prospects were Holloway, Xavier Bourgualt, Broberg and Schaefer, with wingers Carter Savoie, Matvey Petrov, Raphael Lavoie and Ty Tullio next on the list.
In May 2023, before the recent draft where Edmonton had just three picks, Bader had the Oilers ranked 21st overall, with the top five prospects being Savoie, Broberg, Lavoie, Holloway and Bourgault, with not one star prospect, according to Bader: “Not having a potential star in the prospect pool isn’t an immediate concern. But if they don’t add to it soon, in 5 years from now when they need a prospect to assume a big role… there might not be the piece there waiting for them (rule of thumb: even a playoff team should be adding at least one star to their system every 2-3 years).”
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My take
1. Analysts like Bader, Pronman and Wheeler put in a much time and strenuous effort compiling such lists. I don’t quibble with their findings. If Bader says the Oilers have a weak prospect pool by NHL standards, it’s a credible assessment. Of course, that doesn’t mean he’s right. It doesn’t mean the Oilers won’t get massive contributions in future Stanley Cup playoff runs from three or four or five current Oilers prospects. But Bader has done the work while I haven’t, and nor have most of you. We can wish Edmonton’s prospects were ranked higher, but that’s now how the experts now see it.
2. As mentioned, Edmonton is in a win-now mode. To some extent it’s been in one since Connor McDavid was drafted in 2015. The sense of urgency, though, has increased with McDavid and Draisaitl hitting their primes as two-way players, hence the widespread acceptance at the Oilers moving out important draft picks for a player like Ekholm.
I don’t expect Edmonton will be holding on to first round picks so long as McDavid and Draisaitl are pushing hard for Cups in this city. I don’t expect many folks will quibble with such a strategy, so long as Holland moves those picks for useful players, as he most certainly did in the Ekholm trade.
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3. I’ve watched video of a number of top Oilers picks, including Savoie and Lavoie. We’ve all seen plenty of Broberg and Holloway. By NHL rules, they’re no longer rookies, each having played more than 25 games in the NHL, Broberg, 69 and Holloway, 51. But Bader considers a player to be a prospect if he was drafted 2018 or later and has played fewer than 100 NHL games, which is a solid definition of a prospect player. I’d include any player under the age of 27 who has yet to play 50 NHL games. From what I’ve seen, I’m bullish on Broberg and Holloway making it as NHLers, Broberg eventually as a Top 4 d-man, Holloway as a second or third liner. Lavoie also has much promise, but I’m not so sure about Savoie, given his struggles in the AHL last year. But he was a rookie, he got injured, so we’ll see how he does his year.
4. My fellow Cult writer Bruce McCurdy has been attending the ongoing Oilers prospect camp this week and reported that Petrov, Tullio and young Max Wanner caught his eye. Wanner may be one prospect who surprises draft experts, as his game only exploded this past season. He was drafted 212th overall in 2021, but he’s got the tools to succeed a pro. The road will be difficult for him, the competition fierce, but that’s the case whether you’re taken first overall or 212th. The good news, though, for players like him, Petrov, Tullio, Savoie and Bourgault is that with so few draft picks, there is less competition for playing time in Bakersfield of the AHL. If the coaches down there are doing their job and playing the youngsters, all these prospects should get plenty of opportunity to succeed in the AHL.
P.S. Ryan McLeod has filed for arbitration, which was expected. Fingers crossed we hear about new McLeod and Bouchard deals in the next week.
At the Cult of Hockey
McCURDY: Depth draft picks Petrov, Tullio, Wanner stand out at Oilers development camp
STAPLES: Holland gets high praise for Connor Brown signing
McCURDY: Last dance for Ken Holland?
LEAVINS: Oilers lock down their latest Top-6 forward in Connor Brown — 9 Things
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