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Welcome back for another Friday breakdown of the MLB PrizePicks board.
Today, I have identified four pitchers that are in tough spots, and look primed to fall short of their projections.
Let’s dive right into some analysis.
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MLB PrizePicks predictions, player picks
Sandy Alcantara less than 6.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Alcantara has been just a shell of the pitcher he was last year when he won the NL Cy Young Award.
His 4.93 ERA is over 2.5 runs higher than last season, and he is averaging 6.3 innings per start this year compared to 7.1 innings last year.
His 4.17 xFIP and 4.39 SIERA both support his mediocre results this season.
Alcantara has also seen his strikeout rate fall to 19.7% this season from 23.4% last season.
He has recorded more than 6.0 strikeouts in just four of his 17 starts this year.
The Phillies have been slightly better than league average versus right-handed pitching this season, with a .326 wOBA and a 102 wRC+.
Their 23% strikeout rate against righties is just the 12th-highest in MLB.
Bryce Harper also missed a little over a month to begin the season, and their numbers have been even better since his return.
Alcantara faces an uphill battle to make it through 7 innings in this one, which is what I think he would need to have a chance at more than 6 strikeouts.
Luis Medina less than 4.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Medina has struggled to a 6.37 ERA in 11 outings as a starter/bulk reliever for the A’s this season.
He has been below average with both his 20.1% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate.
Five of those 11 outings have come in his home park in Oakland, which is one of the best pitcher’s parks in all of baseball.
Today, he must go into Fenway Park to take on a high-contact Red Sox offense in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball.
The Red Sox are an above-average offense, with a .327 wOBA and 104 wRC+. They have struck out at the sixth-lowest rate (21.3%) in MLB this season.
The huge ballpark shift and the tough matchup with Boston should keep Medina to less than 4 strikeouts tonight.
Bailey Ober less than 6.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Ober has put together an excellent season on the surface, with a 2.70 ERA and an above-average 24.9% strikeout rate.
However, his 4.24 xFIP and 3.93 SIERA indicate he has been a little lucky this season.
He just faced this same Baltimore team he faces today in his last start, recording 8 strikeouts in 7 shutout innings.
He posted an 11.8% swinging strike rate in that start, which tells us he probably racked up a few more strikeouts than he deserved.
Baltimore has struck out at just a 21.9% rate this season, and it projects to send 8 lefties to the plate against Ober this evening.
Ober has a wide platoon split in his strikeout rate since the beginning of last year.
He has struck out just 20.3% of lefties in that time, compared to 27.3% of righties.
Despite his success against them last time out, I think Ober struggles in a tough matchup against the Orioles.
Tony Gonsolin less than 6.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Gonsolin has been a solid pitcher this season for the Dodgers, with a 3.69 ERA.
But he looks to be due for some major regression, as his 5.09 xFIP and 4.98 SIERA are both significantly higher than his ERA.
He has also seen his strikeout rate drop for the third consecutive season, as he currently owns a well below league average 19% strikeout rate.
He has posted the lowest swinging strike rate of his career so far this season.
He has a matchup with an Angels team that will be without Mike Trout for several weeks.
As good as Trout is, he has had a bit of a down season and has struck out nearly 29% of the time versus righties.
The Angels lineup as currently projected has just three hitters who have struck out more than 25% of the time against righties this season.
Gonsolin also has a short leash, as he has thrown more than 90 pitches in just two of his 12 starts this season.
He has recorded more than 6 strikeouts in just one of those starts.
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