Former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier will learn her fate this afternoon, as a by-election in her constituency seems almost certain.
Ms Ferrier has sat as an independent MP since it came to light she acted with “blatant and deliberate dishonest intent” when committing a major breach of lockdown rules in 2021.
She was later sentenced to community service and suspended as an MP for 30 days.
The length of her suspension by the Commons’ standards committee automatically triggered a recall petition in her Rutherglen and Hamilton West constituency.
The recall petition, the first in Scotland since the law was enacted in 2015, closed at 5pm yesterday.
Relatively new rules, which have so far triggered a small number of by-elections, mean that a lengthy Commons suspension or a conviction of any offence, allow constituents to sign a petition calling for a by-election.
If 10 percent of eligible registered voters sign the petition, a by-election will be called.
Counting for today’s Rutherglen petition begins at 3.30pm, and results are expected later this afternoon.
Ms Ferrier’s constituency has an electorate of 80,918, meaning just over 8,000 will have to have signed the petition.
Once the local elections officer discovers the result, they will inform both the House of Commons speaker, and Ms Ferrier, before making a public announcement.
If the recall petition passes the 10 percent threshold, a by-election will be immediately called and Ms Ferrier will have to decide whether to stand as an independent candidate.
The SNP has already announced a replacement candidate for Ms Ferrier, Katy Loudon, meaning she can’t stand for her former party.
If called, the by-election will be hyped up as a make-or-break moment for Humza Yousaf’s leadership of the SNP, after months of chaos.
Labour has grown in strength significantly north of the border, even tying in one poll with the SNP.
If their level of support were maintained through to the election, Sir Keir would pick up a swathe of seats in Scotland from the SNP.
Only three recall petitions have been called since the new law was passed in 2015: Brecon and Radnorshire, Peterborough, and North Antrim.
Brecon and Peterborough reached the 10 percent threshold, North Antrim did not.
Chris Pincher, the former Deputy Chief Whip whose groping scandal brought down Boris Johnson, may yet be subject to one once he’s finished appealing against the Standards Committee’s proposed sanction.
