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BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 19. Russia’s
overall volume of oil exports experienced a month-on-month decrease
of 150,000 b/d in August.
According to the data obtained by Trend from the International Energy Agency
(IEA), this decline was partially mitigated by a 120,000 b/d
increase in crude oil exports but was more substantially influenced
by a 270,000 b/d drop in product exports.
Comparatively, Russia’s total shipments in August remained
900,000 b/d below their levels prior to the conflict and exhibited
a year-on-year decrease of 570,000 b/d.
Crude oil volumes saw a minor uptick, with the reduction in
seaborne trade to China being compensated for by expanded exports
to India. It is worth noting that China and India remain the
primary purchasers of Russian crude; however, their combined share
of purchases decreased to 75 percent in August, down from an
average of 81 percent observed from January through May 2023, as
other buyers entered the market.
As the IEA pointed out, despite Russian crude prices surpassing
the price cap in August, it does not seem to have significantly
influenced the choice of destinations for these exports.
According to the IEA’s research, product exports continue to be
strong, with notable destinations including the UAE, India, and
Brazil, although they have seen a decline in shipments to Saudi
Arabia and China. The decrease in product deliveries has primarily
affected the Middle East, with a drop of 240,000 b/d to 210,000
b/d. It’s worth noting that this figure could potentially increase
since 250,000 b/d of products labeled as heading to “unknown”
locations are still to be considered.
Shipments have eased to Türkiye, with a month-on-month decrease
of 25,000 b/d to 470,000 b/d, and to India, down by 20,000 b/d to
120,000 b/d. However, as the agency noted, product flows have
remained stable to Africa at 320 kb/d. China, India, Türkiye, and
the Middle East collectively account for approximately one-third of
Russian product exports. In some instances, these countries use
these products to replace their domestic supply, which they
subsequently export.
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