Analysis Questions
What pursuits do america, China, and Russia have within the Center East, and what’s the potential for great-power competitors there?Below what situations may america count on to turn out to be concerned in a battle within the Center East wherein China, Russia, or each are additionally concerned?What are the implications for the U.S. authorities, the joint pressure, and the Division of the Air Pressure specifically?
The US is within the midst of a shift in strategic focus from countering terrorism to countering China and Russia within the Indo-Pacific and Europe. For hundreds of years, the Center East has served as a theater of competitors between the world’s nice powers. Right now’s most distinguished opponents additionally view the Center East as a important area of the world the place they will domesticate entry and affect. This report — a part of a four-volume sequence — explores the place and the way america, China, and Russia are competing for affect within the Center East; what sorts of pursuits they’ve within the area; what sorts of diplomatic, informational, army, and financial influence-seeking measures they’re utilizing; the place and why competitors may flip into battle; what kind that battle may take; and what implications the findings have for the U.S. authorities at giant, the joint pressure, and the Division of the Air Pressure specifically. This analysis was accomplished in September 2021, simply after the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan and earlier than the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The report has not been subsequently revised.
Key Findings
The US stays dominant within the army area within the Center East, however Russia and China are gaining floor.
Nice-power involvement in potential future Center Jap conflicts is unlikely to be pushed primarily by issues over opponents’ increasing affect.
Counterterrorism and great-power competitors are interconnected within the Center East.
Shifts within the degree of U.S. engagement within the Center East may contribute to situations that result in great-power involvement in proxy battle.
The US, China, and Russia have restricted willingness for direct army engagement within the area until there are direct threats to their core pursuits.
Conflicts within the Center East involving nice powers might not resemble these of the Chilly Warfare.
Suggestions
Preserve or domesticate ties to pleasant governments and non-state actors.
Rethink arms gross sales to the Center East by the lens of great-power competitors.
Preserve counterterrorism capabilities whereas cultivating capabilities related to different features of great-power competitors.
Think about sustaining pressure presence within the Center East to take care of stability and shield U.S. pursuits.
Preserve entry agreements within the area, particularly for overflight rights.
Put together for continued demand for U.S. Air Pressure belongings within the theater and make investments accordingly.
Put together for multifaceted deconfliction challenges in future conflicts which will contain China and Russia.
Desk of Contents
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
Figuring out Regional Competitors Flashpoints
Chapter Three
Battle Eventualities with Nice-Energy Involvement: Afghanistan and Pakistan
Chapter 4
Battle Eventualities with Nice-Energy Involvement: Iraq
Chapter 5
Conclusion
Appendix
Particulars on the Competitors-Potential and Battle-Potential Indices
The analysis reported right here was commissioned by Headquarters Air Pressure A5S and performed inside the Technique and Doctrine Program of RAND Challenge AIR FORCE.
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