THE GLUT of pre-season Premier League predictions was strange in one respect — the widespread idea that Newcastle United would suffer a dip in fortunes.
While most pundits suggested Eddie Howe’s team would finish outside of the top four, filthy-rich state-funded football projects don’t often do ‘dips’.
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And especially one being carried out as intelligently as Newcastle’s.
Reality bit when they demolished upwardly-mobile Aston Villa 5-1, with excellent goalscoring performances from summer signings Sandro Tonali and Harvey Barnes.
And while we shouldn’t reach too many conclusions from one round of matches, the two most ruthless displays of the opening weekend came from the two clubs powered by sovereign wealth.
Manchester City’s victory at Burnley, effectively finished before half-time by two Erling Haaland strikes, was another prime example of the dead weight of financial might flattening decent budget opposition.
This weekend, Newcastle visit Pep Guardiola’s champions for an early-season six-pointer between, for my money, this season’s eventual top two teams.
Pity the poor little American billionaire venture capitalists at Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United trying to compete with the vast petrochemical riches of the authoritarian Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi regimes.
Their own particular ‘Just Stop Oil’ campaign seems doomed.
City are the great benchmark for Geordie Arabia, as the other club to have made the transition from mid-table sleeping giants to world domination via Middle Eastern black gold.
And Newcastle’s owners are learning from the mistakes made by City during the early years of Abu Dhabi rule.
There have been no loose-cannon signings such as Mario Balotelli, Carlos Tevez and Emmanuel Adebayor.
No Newcastle executives have been calling out Ballon d’Or winners as bottle jobs, like City’s Garry Cook when Kaka refused to join his club.
And the Saudis are determined to avoid City’s scrapes with Financial Fair Play constraints, which have seen them face Uefa, and now, Premier League charges.
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The £30million transfer of Allan Saint-Maximin to Al-Ahli shows Newcastle will circumvent FFP by offloading players at inflated prices to their blood-brother clubs in Saudi Arabia.
This is legal, if not ethical.
But if you expected ethics from the Saudis, you obviously missed the bit about the executions of gay people, repression of women and dismemberment of a dissident journalist.
But it is possible to hate Saudi wealth and influence, while admiring the way Newcastle have progressed since their 2021 takeover.
As the regime’s fourth transfer window nears an end, the Tynesiders’ burgeoning success has been built on sensible recruitment and excellent coaching.
Much was made of Howe improving players, such as Joelinton and Miguel Almiron, who were already in the building before the Saudis arrived in the North East.
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But the gradual shift towards a Saudi-bought team is nearing completion — eight of Saturday’s starting 11 were purchased by the current regime at a cost of a quarter of a billion, with subs Barnes and Tino Livramento setting them back a further £70m.
Tonali, Barnes and young defender Livramento, 20, represent excellent business and the assumption that Newcastle don’t have the squad depth to compete in the Champions League and at the top of the Premier League looks a little lazy.
There were certainly no duffers among Newcastle’s nine subs last weekend. Saturday’s visit to City looks intriguing, provided you hold your nose about the source of funding at both clubs.
Guardiola was always effusive in praising Howe whenever City routinely gubbed his Bournemouth team and now you can fully understand the Catalan’s admiration.
Newcastle are getting under the skin of the old order — especially Liverpool’s Jurgen Klopp, who had a lovely little dig on Sunday.
Asked about the new Premier League rule which states only one member of a coaching team can be in the technical area at any moment, Klopp said that it would only be a problem for one club, Newcastle.
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The German was voicing the previously unspoken truth that this regulation had been introduced specifically to combat Howe’s irritant lieutenant Jason Tindall, with whom Klopp and his staff had clashed on the Anfield touchline last season.
These annoyances will grow as Newcastle rise beyond the reaches of Liverpool, United, Arsenal and Chelsea.
The Toon will eventually usurp City — perhaps only after Guardiola finally leaves Manchester — because they are England’s richest club and ultimately it always comes down to money.
That will represent the Premier League’s darkest possible moment — unless Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin or the Taliban are ever allowed to buy English clubs.
It took Abu Dhabi three years to reach the Champions League, five to win the title and 15 to lift the European Cup.
The Saudis are already ahead of that curve — because they are doing it smarter.
NO FAIR SHARE
CHELSEA entered this transfer window with supposed concerns over Financial Fair Play.
And they will end it having broken their own Premier League transfer record on a 21-year-old central midfielder who has never won a team trophy.
Moises Caicedo looks a fine footballer — and fair play to anyone who simply doesn’t want to play for Liverpool — but £115million is an extraordinary fee for an unproven youngster.
Chelsea have spent around £220m on recruiting personnel from Brighton in the past year but can they even finish above their own ‘feeder club’?
SPURSY JAMES
JAMES MADDISON is already the most Tottenham player to play for Tottenham in several years.
The new recruit from Leicester follows in a grand tradition of outstanding flair players who never win the league at Spurs…
Dimitar Berbatov, David Ginola, Paul Gascoigne, Chris Waddle, Glenn Hoddle and Ossie Ardiles among them.
Here’s a confident prediction. During Maddison’s Spurs career, he will be crowned Footballer of the Year and Spurs will never finish higher than eighth.
JUDE A JEWEL
IT’S remarkable that, despite the financial domination which seems to provoke fear and loathing on the continent, neither of England’s best two footballers — Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham — play in the Premier League.
Bellingham, who enjoyed a brilliant LaLiga debut for Real Madrid at Athletic Bilbao, is perhaps more likely than Bayern Munich’s Kane to win the Champions League.
Although, in fond memory of Arsene Wenger’s latter years, here’s a scorecast for the last 16 of this year’s competition — Bayern 5 Arsenal 1, with a Kane hat-trick for good measure.
LUTON WORRY
THE MOST worrying aspect for Luton Town on their Premier League debut at Brighton was not the 4-1 scoreline.
But the way Seagulls fans and players celebrated their opening goal in a low-key fashion reminiscent of a cup tie against lower-league opposition.
GUNNED DOWN
THERE’S intrigue at Arsenal over whether Aaron Ramsdale will be replaced by David Raya as Mikel Arteta’s first-choice goalie.
Although, if you’ve been watching closely enough, it’s clear that Fulham’s Bernd Leno, replaced by Ramsdale as Arsenal’s No 1, is actually a better keeper than either of them.
