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BJP staff adorning Ballari metropolis with half flags on Friday forward of celebration’s Scheduled Tribes convention to be held on Sunday.
| Picture Credit score: SRIDHAR KAVALI
The Bharatiya Janata Celebration (BJP) misplaced deposits in 31 constituencies — 13.8% of the seats the celebration contested — within the not too long ago concluded Karnataka Meeting elections. Notably, the celebration received 66 seats within the election, which is 29.5% of the seats contested. These two knowledge factors make for fascinating studying, for when learn collectively, they trace at a state of dichotomy in Karnataka. Extra importantly, when in comparison with all of the current State elections by which the BJP received a major share of seats, Karnataka is a transparent outlier by way of the share of seats by which it misplaced deposits.
Based on the provisions outlined within the Illustration of the Folks Act of 1951, it’s necessary for common class candidates competing in an Meeting election to deposit Rs. 10,000 and Scheduled Caste/Scheduled Tribe (SC/ST) candidates to deposit half of that. With a purpose to retrieve their deposits, candidates should safe a minimal of one-sixth (16.67%) of the whole votes polled of their constituency. Whereas the deposits had been launched to cut back the variety of candidates competing, they later become a matter of satisfaction with these dropping deposits going through humiliation.
Scatter Plot 1 | Within the horizontal axis, the chart exhibits the seats received by the BJP as a share of the seats it contested in all of the current State elections. Within the vertical axis, the seats by which the BJP misplaced deposits as a share of seats it contested is plotted.
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As will be noticed from the chart, in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Mizoram, Punjab, Kerala and Meghalaya, the place the BJP received lower than 5% of the seats, it misplaced deposit in additional than 70% of the seats. That is an comprehensible final result. On condition that the celebration was routed in these States, it was anticipated to lose deposits too in lots of them. However, in all of the States the place it had received greater than 10% of the seats, the share of seats by which deposits had been misplaced was understandably low.
Scatter Plot 2 | The chart exhibits the States the place the BJP received greater than 10% of seats and plots the seats received by the BJP as a share of the seats it contested in all of the current State elections (horizontal axis) and the seats by which the BJP misplaced deposits as a share of seats it contested is plotted (vertical axis).
As proven in Scatter Plot 2, it’s within the States the place the BJP personal greater than 10% of seats that the celebration’s efficiency in Karnataka stands out. The 13.8% of seats the place it misplaced deposits in Karnataka is the very best amongst these States, with Goa coming shut with 12.5%. Among the many main States, Odisha is a distant second the place the BJP misplaced deposits in 8.8% of seats.
Apparently, in West Bengal, the place the BJP received 26.3% of the seats within the current elections, it misplaced deposits in solely 3.8% of the seats. In Gujarat, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Himachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh and Delhi, it didn’t lose deposit even in a single seat within the current polls. Of the 22 States by which the BJP received greater than 10% of the seats, in 16 it misplaced deposits in lower than 5% of seats. So, clearly, the BJP Karnataka outcomes had been an outlier.
Scatter Plot 3 | On this chart, the scale of the circle corresponds to the seats contested by the BJP as a share of seats obtainable in a State. The larger the circle, the upper the share of seats competed by the BJP.
Scatter Plot 3 provides one other dimension to Scatter Plot 2. As will be famous, the share of seats contested by the BJP in Tamil Nadu was comparatively low, as a result of alliance equations with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. Probably as a result of the BJP contested in solely choose seats, it managed to not lose deposit even in a single, regardless of being a comparatively weak celebration within the southern State.
Chart 4 | The chart exhibits the seats by which the BJP misplaced deposits as a share of the seats it contested throughout areas of Karnataka.
The BJP misplaced deposits in 38.4% of the seats it contested in Southern Karnataka, the very best such share amongst all areas.
vignesh.r@thehindu.co.in and rebecca.varghese@thehindu.co.in
Supply: Political Profession Tracker, Trivedi Centre of Political Information, Ashoka College
Additionally learn: After Karnataka, extra classes for the BJP
Hearken to our Information podcast: Unpacking traits seen within the 2023 Karnataka Meeting Elections
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