With each passing night the depth of Ukraine’s counteroffensive alongside the southern entrance has elevated. At this level it’s clear that Ukraine isn’t concentrating on breaking by way of Russian defenses in a single level, however is conducting quite a few separate, however coordinated assaults.
Over the course of Sunday, Ukraine has apparently liberated quite a few cities and villages which were on the entrance line in Zaporizhzhia oblast for months. They’ve additionally pushed Russian forces out of a number of the superior “screening” traces that had been nearer to the entrance and on the whole demonstrated success at quite a few factors.
The diploma of success has different from a location simply south of Orikhiv, close to the village of Robotyne, the place dislodging Russian forces has proved tough, to nearer to Velyka Novosilka the place a complete string of villages has been liberated and reviews present Ukrainian forces nonetheless advancing.
That is positively the level of the counteroffensive the place day-after-day extra cities and villages should be added to the map as Ukrainian forces attain them, the situation turns into disputed, after which the settlement is liberated and the combat strikes on. It’s an pleasure that hasn’t been felt since issues quieted down on the northern part of the road final fall. There are going to be a number of images like this one within the close to future, and their return is extraordinarily uplifting.
That is additionally the time wherein there are rather a lot—rather a lot—of false claims of advances, cities liberated, cities misplaced, and tools destroyed on both facet. Since Ukraine’s operational safety tends to damp down dialog from their forces on the bottom, all the pieces we’re getting regarding confirmed Ukrainian advances is normally at the least a day behind the motion. However, each Russian reviews of troopers operating away in screaming panic, and Russian false claims about having destroyed the complete Ukrainian army, come by way of unfiltered and at excessive velocity. Maintain that in thoughts.
Southern Ukraine Entrance overview
When the map is zoomed manner out to indicate the connection of the present areas of battle with the strategic targets at Melitopol and Mariupol, the progress up to now can appear fairly small. In a manner it’s. These main Russian defensive traces which were constructed over the past a number of months are nonetheless forward of the combating in each location. Russia had its troops stationed out about 10-15 km forward of these defensive traces typically, typically with some smaller native trenches and pillboxes to help the place. Ukraine has not but moved Russian forces again to the principle defensive traces, although there are locations the place they’re getting shut.
Nevertheless, transferring Russia out of those advance positions is a needed first step. Over the combating of the final week, one factor is evident: Ukraine could make advances. Additionally Ukraine nonetheless has the vast majority of its power, maybe greater than three-fourths, in reserve.
Properly behind the traces, Russia is reporting a number of explosions in each Tokmak and Melitopol. Ukraine has repeatedly hit excessive worth targets—logistical facilities, provide deports, and headquarters buildings—over the previous few nights. They’re utilizing longer vary weapons to make issues harder for Russian forces on the entrance.
Earlier within the day, it was reported that precision weaponry (unclear what variety) was used to strike a rail bridge southwest of Melitopol. Till repaired, this might restrict the power to maneuver forces or provides out and in of Crimea by rail, however not at all “cuts the realm off” as some social media posts have maintained.
Vasylivka—Orikhiv Space
In the previous few hours, the western finish of Ukraine’s line of assaults has produced information of thrilling advances and sobering views of simply how exhausting it may be to push forces out of ready positions.
On the excessive west of the road, issues appear to be occurring shortly simply north of Vasylivka. After liberating Lobkove, Ukrainian forces have reportedly crossed a small river to seize parts of Zherebyanky and Pyatykhatky. There are additionally unconfirmed reviews that they’ve pushed Russian troops from the southern space of Kamyansk and established positions there. Lastly, there are unconfirmed reviews that Russian forces have deserted the city of Luhove and moved again to defensive positions nearer to Vasylivka.
That’s all excellent news. And it’s some critical excellent news.
Sadly, across the city of Robotyne, Ukraine, the day has seen heavy combating, with a lot much less reported progress. Nevertheless, there’s one thing necessary to find out about photos like these beneath.
The excellent news right here it twofold. First, at lease a few of these photos don’t characterize new losses by Ukraine. A number of are of autos misplaced 4 days in the past within the first assault within the space. Russia retains sending out increasingly photos of those similar Leopards and Bradleys from new angles. They hold exhibiting up in social media feeds with the implication that these are contemporary losses. Some could also be. Most are usually not. The much more necessary information is that there are photos exhibiting that in lots of circumstances these autos did precisely what they had been designed to do—shield the troopers inside, a few of whom had been in a position to withdraw from the realm with out apparent hurt. Nonetheless, these three Leopard 2R mine clearing tanks are an enormous loss.
However make no mistake: This the worst space for Ukraine alongside the entrance traces up to now, and a sobering demonstration of simply how exhausting it’s to be on the offensive towards a ready opponent.
This has not been a one-sided battle. Russian autos, transports, and artillery have been misplaced in the identical space. It additionally appears that Ukraine has introduced some HIMARS shut sufficient to the battle that Russian forces have reported strikes over 20 km behind the combating in Tokmak. Whereas there’s been no reported advance on this space over the past day, that doesn’t imply it’s been a catastrophe.
Ultimately report, combating was ongoing on this space with Ukraine persevering with to press the assault. Russian sources appear to be speaking a couple of “battle for Nesterianka,” alongside a roadway halfway between the 2 different battles on this entrance, however up to now I’ve seen nothing to substantiate any motion there despite the fact that a Ukrainian power was reportedly situated alongside this highway.
Hulyaipole—Velyka Novosilka Space
The largest space of progress has positively been within the space to the east, south of the city of Velyka Novosilvka. The truth is, issues have been transferring so shortly on this space, that there’s an excellent probability a number of the areas nonetheless within the disputed areas had been liberated earlier than the publish went up.
Within the final day, there are reviews of Ukrainian forces transferring southwest out of Hulyaipole to the city of Marfopil. As of 8PM ET, there are unconfirmed reviews that this city has been liberated by Ukrainian forces, however has not but been backed up by photos or different proof.
Ukraine has reportedly liberated the village of Levadne in addition to the city of Novodarivka. For the final a number of days, Rivnopil appeared to face alone between two areas of Ukrainian progress, however on Sunday there are reviews of Ukrainian forces urgent into that location from the north.
The largest advance is alongside the highway straight south of Velyka Novosilka. There may be photographic proof for the liberation of each Neskuchne and Blahodatne. In the previous few hours, a Ukrainian deputy minister has introduced the liberation of Storozheve and Makarivka. Ukrainian forces at the moment are reportedly about 8 km south of the entrance traces per week in the past, combating round Urozhaine and Staromaiorske. There are very unconfirmed reviews that Staromaiorske has already been liberated (as in I’m not seeing it from any of the standard suspects on Telegram and I don’t know the accounts making this declare on Twitter).
On the east fringe of this advance, Ukraine has liberated Novodonetske after a day the place management of this location could have gone backwards and forwards. A variety of Russian autos had been reported destroyed alongside the highway operating right down to Oktyabrske, and there are reviews that Russia has deserted Oktyabrske to maneuver to the defensive traces to the south. Once more, contemplate that very unconfirmed.
Northern and Japanese Ukraine entrance
For the time being, maps for this space haven’t been up to date. Nevertheless, there are a number of areas the place Ukraine has made reported advances. It’s not clear if these advances has been supported by newly educated brigades, or if they’re the results of motion by troops who had been already on the area.
Kupyansk: On Saturday evening, Russian forces within the space reported that they may hear and see Ukrainian forces transferring into the realm. On Sunday a lot of the combating seems to have been within the nature of artillery duels, with some Russian tools reported destroyed.
Svatove: Unconfirmed reviews that Ukrainian troops pushed Russian forces out of the village of Kryvoshyivka. This is able to be an necessary place alongside the P07 freeway northwest of Svatove and alongside Russia’s principal line of protection. Hopefully there might be extra information from this space.
Kreminna: Ukrainian forces have reportedly made a small advance on this space, pushing Russian forces out of parts of the forest south of town which that they had occupied over the winter. Ukraine additionally reportedly staged an assault within the space of Chervonopopivka, alongside the freeway north of Kreminna, which might characterize Russia shedding territory within the space if correct.
Bakhmut: Ukrainian forces reportedly elevated their management within the space across the Berkhivka reservoir northwest of town. This got here after a three-day restricted offensive by Russia within the space that doesn’t seem to have pushed Ukraine again. On the south, there doesn’t appear to have been a lot change close to Klishchiivka.
Avdiivka: The Ukrainian army reported advances on this space, however it’s not clear the place they had been relative to town or how in depth. Combating right here is reported to be very heavy.
