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The scoring woes of Edmonton Oilers’ forward Connor Brown have been well-documented. When the 8-year NHL veteran was signed to a bonus-laden contract last Jul 01, he had 448 NHL games to his credit, during which time he had scored 90 goals and added 126 assists.
He has since played 44 games as an Oiler, almost exactly 10% of his prior experience. Based on established production rights, it stands to reason that he might be expected to have about 9 goals by now; in reality he has none at all. A similar straight-line expectation suggests he might have 12 or 13 assists, not the measly 4 he has produced to this point.
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But as the puck has steadfastly refused to find the net, Brown has found himself moving down the depth chart. After starting the season skating alongside Connor McDavid on Edmonton’s top line (55 minutes together at even strength), Brown soon found himself on Line 2, primarily with Evander Kane and Leon Draisaitl (still his most common linemates at 192 and 140 minutes respectively). Then came time on Line 3 with Ryan McLeod (135 minutes) and, frequently, Kane. Most recently, he’s lined up on a no-event fourth line with fellow veteran checkers Derek Ryan and Mattias Janmark (89 and 82 minutes).
At Sunday’s practice, however, he found himself in an uncomfortable new spot — extra forward.
It’s a sad fact that Brown has been unable to find offensive chemistry with anybody. At least with Ryan and Janmark, there was an element of strong defensive play. Indeed, entering yesterday’s game at Dallas, none of the three had been on the ice for a single goal against at even strength for the prior 12 games. In addition, Brown had become an integral part of a penalty kill unit that played a major role in Edmonton’s recent 16-game winning streak. Strong defensive play was a huge contributor to that run, and Connor Brown delivered that from both the fourth line and the PK.
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It all came crashing down in a disastrous second period at Dallas on Saturday, which led to an in-game benching and today’s aftermath.
Brown’s time-on-ice chart tells the tale:
3 shifts in the middle frame. All 3 ended with the puck in Edmonton’s net.
Granted, 2 of the 3 occurred with the Oilers killing a penalty, but the end result was that they didn’t kill it, with Brown himself being among those beaten — and hardly the prime culprit — on the first. On his second shift, at even strength, he made a fundamental defensive error, allowing his check, Dallas d-man Thomas Harley, to blow right past him in the slot for an uncontested shot on net.
Brown spent the next 14 minutes on the bench, returning to action only when the Oilers took another penalty late in the frame. That shift lasted but 20 seconds before Dallas scored again. Not a mistake by Brown himself this time, but an unsuccessful kill all the same.
Just like that, Brown’s nearly spotless defensive record in 2024 was in shambles. He hadn’t been on the ice for a single powerplay goal against in 18 games, his 36 minutes leading all forwards over that span, but that went sideways with a pair of PPGA in consecutive opportunities. In between times, that ugly one at even strength in which his was the primary mistake.
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Even the strongest defensive players make mistakes from time to time, of course. They also tend to make up for them by contributing positively at the other end of the sheet, which is where Brown has fallen short during his time as Edmonton. And as my Cult of Hockey colleague Kurt Leavins concluded in his popular 9 Things column just this morning, “you make your own margins in this game. And when you do not score, at all, those margins are tight at the other end.”
Tight enough that when the penalty kill falls apart as it has in recent games, and the checking line fails at its primary task, it’s time for a change. And after a game the Oilers gave up 3 goals during Brown’s 9:04 of action and none at all in the other 51:26 of what was ultimately a 4-3 overtime victory.
The new-look fourth line will have a much more offensive bent. Dylan Holloway, who missed Saturday’s game with illness, returns to the line-up and will play the centre position, as he did briefly earlier this season. He’ll bring speed, athleticism and youthful zest to a trio that even with its 22-year-old pivot averages 31 years of age. (Ken Holland does like those veteran wingers.) Sam Gagner, recent “coach’s decision” who drew into the line-up Saturday in Holloway’s absence, will remain in the rotation. As will Derek Ryan, though he will be shifted to right wing after playing a lot of pivot in recent times. Presumably Ryan will help out in the faceoff circle, especially on his strong (right) side.
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Meanwhile, Janmark moves up the line-up to Holloway’s previous spot at 3LW. No doubt this will spark outrage in certain quarters of Oil Country, but consider this: the last time the defence-first vet was on the ice for an even-strength goal against was two months ago against Florida. That was Dec 16. Since then, 22 games, 208 even-strength minutes, 4 goals for, 0 against.
Obviously that’s not all his own doing — for (ahem) starters, Edmonton netminders have made 73 straight saves over that time. That works out to just 21 shots per 60, the best shot suppression rate of any Oilers forward. The squad has posted positive shares of shots, high-danger chances (59%!) and expected goals during Janmark’s ice time, despite an assignment that has seen him take 50% more faceoffs in the d-zone than the o-. All the while playing with fellow grinders for the most part, the luckless Brown prominent among them.
Janmark’s boxcars over that span — 22 GP, 0-1-1, +3 — are remarkable only for the last stat in comparison to those that precede it. He never scores, yet somehow he outscores. (To his credit, his lone apple came on Ryan’s third-period tying goal in a comeback win against Toronto, a pretty big goal in its context.)
He also played a significant role in the PK unit that was brilliant in January before its recent, rapid descent into hard times. In Dallas, his pairing with Brown got lit up twice. So Janmark — who himself drew press box duty in a recent game — will find himself with a new PK mate in Arizona Monday afternoon. Best guess here is McLeod.
Recently at the Cult of Hockey
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