The Leinster centre will remain with the squad over the weekend but, barring a miracle recovery, he is expected to be replaced in the squad if Ireland are still in the tournament after tomorrow’s final Pool B game against Scotland.
Andy Farrell will wait until the end of that game to see what it throws up in terms of other injuries and potential suspensions before making a decision on a replacement.
Jacob Stockdale and Andrew Conway are injured, so Jamie Osborne would likely be the next back in line after being part of the wider squad in pre-season, but the return to fitness of Cian Healy makes him a real option.
Healy has been working with the IRFU’s rehabilitation staff at Abbotstown to make a faster-than-expected return to fitness after hurting his calf in the pre-season win over Samoa, and the coach admitted he’s on the radar.
“When we have a look at whatever else throws itself up at the weekend and we’ve been fortunate so far, haven’t we?” Farrell said.
“It all depends in regards to if someone else goes down, what does the squad need? What do we need to prepare properly?
“It’s not always a replacement like for like and Cian is obviously one of those players who’s at the forefront of our minds.”
Farrell has made two changes to the team that beat South Africa, with Iain Henderson and Dan Sheehan coming in for James Ryan and Rónan Kelleher. Jack Conan replaces Ryan Baird on the bench, while Stuart McCloskey takes the No 23 shirt vacated by Henshaw.
Captain Johnny Sexton said Ireland are treating tomorrow’s clash as the first round of the knockouts.
“It was always going to come down to this game,” he said.
“It was possible that Scotland could be the unbeaten team and us needing to chase it to win but ultimately it comes down to a must-win.
“It’s exactly where we want to be. We’ve been lucky enough with injuries to date so from that regard we’re in a good place. I think with our form we still feel that there’s more in us.
“Parts of the South Africa game, we look back and if we were on the other side of the result we’d be taking huge lessons from it in terms of some of our parts of the game didn’t click.
“So we still feel there are some parts of our game we need to improve if we want to go further in this competition and that comes down to this weekend.”
Ireland come into the game on a 16-match winning run, knowing they need a result to book their place in the quarter-final. A win or draw guarantees them top spot, as does a bonus-point defeat with Scotland scoring fewer than four tries – but things get tricky after that.
Gregor Townsend has selected a 6/2 split of forwards and backs on his bench, with Darcy Graham preferred on the wing to Kyle Steyn.
And the coach says Scotland won’t focus on their poor recent record against Ireland.
“I don’t think we address the run of games,” he said.
“We address the challenge of playing such a good team like Ireland and what it could mean if we brought our best rugby.
“That’s the biggest challenge, what’s in the past is in the past. Those past results show what a good team Ireland are.”
The Left Wing is coming to the 3Olympia Theatre on Thursday 19th October ahead of the World Cup semi-finals and with Ireland potentially playing for a World Cup final place, it promises to be a great night of rugby discussion and banter with Luke Fitzgerald and Will Slattery being joined by Bernard Jackman and Stephen Ferris.
Tickets priced from €29.90 including booking fee and are on sale now at this link.
