The thriller surrounding the so-called Havana Syndrome — an unexplained sickness first skilled by U.S. Division of State personnel stationed in Cuba in late 2016 — illustrates the problem of mustering a response to a nationwide safety risk when the risk, the underlying methodology, and the actor behind the risk will not be understood with certainty. This report explores the applicability of present ideas for deterrence and compellence utilizing transient case research. Along with Havana Syndrome, the authors discover the SolarWinds cyberattack, by which hackers linked to Russian intelligence carried out a large cyberattack towards American firms and authorities businesses, and the Chinese language Communist Occasion’s connections to organized crime syndicates around the globe.
The core discovering is that few of the usual response choices are efficient towards all these threats. With out certainty about who’s conducting the actions, methods that depend on threats of punishment, normative taboos, or rallying of worldwide condemnation are largely ineffective. Denial-by-defense methods are thus more likely to be the best however could also be tough to design successfully if the strategy underlying the assaults is poorly understood.
This analysis was sponsored by the Workplace of the Secretary of Protection and carried out inside the Worldwide Safety and Protection Coverage Middle of the RAND Nationwide Safety Analysis Division (NSRD).
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