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2023-24 Edmonton Oilers Prospects
#2 Raphael Lavoie
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(#11 in 2022)
Raphael Lavoie was born in Chambly, Quebec September 25th, 2000. The young right winger stands 6’4 and has filled out substantially over the last couple seasons, now weighing in at 216 pounds.
Lavoie was scoring star in the Quebec Major league, with back-to-back-to-back 30+ goal seasons in Halifax (as well as a brief stint in Chicoutimi at the end of 2019-20). The goals increased in each season, from 30 to 32 to 38 in his final year in The Q. All that bolded and punctuated by a spectacular run to the Memorial Cup in 2019 as the big winger went 23-20-32 in 23 post-season matchups for the Mooseheads. Sadly, his final year in junior was prematurely ended by COVID.
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Lavoie was drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the 2nd Round (38th overall) in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft after his afore-mentioned breakout junior season. And like in The Q, Lavoie has progressed in each of his three years with the Condors. After starting 2020-21 in Sweden, Lavoie returned to North America for a 5-5-10 run in 19 games in Bakersfield. Lavoie managed to keep his pace of production in 2021-22, going 13-13-26 in 56 games, plus 1-3-4 in 6 post-season games.
But lest this come off as smooth sailing for the big prospect, Lavoie’s time in pro has been a series of learning experiences. That 2021-22 campaign started with 0 goals in his first 18 games. And it ended in an injury that kept him out of Oilers camp the following autumn and delayed the start of his AHL season, too. Both of those things came with serious consequences in terms of his development. Some of that learning also came in the form of some tough love, mid-season last year. Starting late due to the injury, he had a miserable first two months. But to his credit, seemed to eventually get the message. Lavoie ended up with 25 goals and 20 helpers for 45 points in 61 games. And he was hot down the stretch. 21 of those came in the last 43 games.
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The points only tell part of the story. Raphael Lavoie also started to become more dependable without the puck. And while no one expects him to be the next Bob Gainey, Lavoie discovered that with better defensive instinct and a harder forecheck also comes more offensive opportunity.
When Raphael Lavoie is “right” he is using his size to drive the net. And he possesses a dangerous first-shot mentality.
Here is what some other hockey watchers have to say about him…
-Elite Prospects: “A large and skilled player. His release stands out which is very accurate and allows him to be a capable scorer. Reads the game fairly well and is good at distributing the puck”.
-From Dobber Prospects: “Big goal scoring winger that has the ability to take over games when he wants to. Consistency is a concern at this point, but the tools are there for him to be a top six winger”.
-Sports Forecaster: “Owns tremendous size, strength and skating ability and a powerful shot. Lacks consistency in a major way and needs to improve his play in the defensive zone greatly”.
-Chris Peters (ESPN): Has shown his ability to bulky his way to offence and play a strong, aggressive offensive game”.
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-Last Word on Sports: “An intriguing combination of size, speed, power and skill”.
Fair or not, Lavoie has developed a bit of a reputation as an enigma as a prospect. He would seem to have all the tools in the world. But as described, his path has been far from smooth. And now, his current contract status has also contributed to some of those questions.
More than a few eyes blinked this summer when Lavoie signed a 1-year, two-way contract extension worth $874,125. That was the club’s qualifying offer. More than a few people (me included) thought it would have been in his and the team’s best interests to recognize the club’s cap struggles. Sign a league-minimum contract instead, with a little more dough if he ends up in the AHL. It would have, after all, made it easier for Ken Holland to fit him into the lineup.
Do I fault the kid for betting on himself? Of course not. And professional hockey careers can be cruelly short. It is difficult to blame players for taking a paycheck where they can find it. But on the other hand, Lavoie is just 22. Did his agent not see the cap complication that everyone saw? Or did they instead see a lineup that was going to be difficult to crack and felt waivers (he is NOT exempt) may be the ticket to a better shot in another organization?
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The cold, hard facts are that the Oilers are in a situation where they will likely only carry a 21-man roster to start the season. If Lavoie comes into camp this fall and shoots the lights out like Dylan Holloway did last year, then I can see him making the team. But if he is “just o.k.”, is not on the PP or PK, and not a good faceoff man either, then does an experienced, better-rounded veteran beat him out? Very possible, yes.
Finally, a note if fairness that I have applied to other Oilers prospects as well. A significant chunk of Lavoie’s development has been during COVID. That was not of his making, and I give him full marks for soldiering through it.
PROJECTION for 2023-24:
-Unless something gives on the cap side of things, I see it as a long shot for Lavoie to crack the NHL roster out of camp. That will mean waivers, although I am not at all sure he would get claimed. And if not, he would continue to work on his game in AHL Bakersfield as an early candidate to be re-called.
The Cult of Hockey prospect rankings are complied based on a ballot by David Staples, Bruce McCurdy, Hockey Hall of Fame Edmonton Journal writer Jim Matheson, Ira Cooper and yours truly.
Now on Threads @kleavins. Also, find me on Twitter @KurtLeavins, Instagram at LeavinsOnHockey, and Mastodon at KurtLeavins@mstdn.social
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