Analysis Questions
What prewar assumptions and predictions previous to previous nice energy wars turned out to be unsuitable?What are ways in which warfare between the USA and Russia or China may start and unfold that differ from broadly mentioned eventualities?How would the strategic atmosphere change after an important energy warfare?
The U.S. Division of Protection has been more and more centered on competitors with Russia and China and, within the excessive, the potential of nice energy warfare. To tell eager about what may observe such a warfare, RAND researchers generated 4 hypothetical near-term nice energy warfare eventualities and assessed how the postwar strategic atmosphere would change in every state of affairs. These eventualities provide planners and decisionmakers believable narratives about future nice energy wars with totally different options to assist them look at assumptions and take into consideration how wartime decisions may have an effect on postwar U.S. targets.
The eventualities on this report illustrate the complicated relationships between wartime and postwar targets. They present how a U.S. victory may provoke a stronger alignment between China and Russia or result in better dedication and hostility within the just lately defeated adversary. A U.S. defeat, in the meantime, may improve U.S. efforts to recruit allies and companions, whereas additionally growing the chance of nuclear proliferation amongst U.S. allies and companions. Indeterminate warfare outcomes may heighten the danger of a fast return to battle whereas sapping alliance cohesion. The complexity and variability of those outcomes spotlight the significance for U.S. policymakers of contemplating postwar outcomes in prewar planning.
Key Findings
A U.S. victory may provoke deeper Sino-Russian army and financial cooperation — or perhaps a mutual protection pact.
An ideal energy warfare, even one with Russia, may sharpen the U.S. concentrate on the Indo-Pacific. Postwar useful resource constraints would create incentives to prioritize China as probably the most vital potential risk to the USA.
Though wars can strengthen bonds between allies, postwar alliance cohesion may undergo from wartime disagreements and the way allies reply to the modified strategic atmosphere.
Allied contributions to a U.S.-led warfare with Russia or China may range throughout and even inside eventualities, suggesting the significance of plans which might be strong to adjustments in entry.
U.S. allies and companions may face new incentives to pursue nuclear weapon applications after an important energy warfare that degrades U.S. energy.
Suggestions
Think about setting a futures sport in a interval following an important energy warfare to evaluate whether or not proposed capabilities could be applicable in an unfamiliar strategic context.
Desk of Contents
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
China Annexes Taiwan
Chapter Three
United States Degrades China’s Army Energy After an East China Sea Battle Expands
Chapter 4
Surprising Warfare over Taiwan Ends in a Frozen Battle
Chapter 5
Warfare Brought on by Russian Misperception Ends in Restrictions on Army Forces in Northeastern Europe
Chapter Six
Conclusion
The analysis reported right here was commissioned by Headquarters Air Power, Directorate of Technique, Posture, and Assessments and was carried out throughout the Technique and Doctrine Program of RAND Challenge AIR FORCE.
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