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The NDP needs to soften its starkly negative image and build support in rural Alberta. Rachel Notley’s leadership is indelibly tied to both weak points.
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Rachel Notley, then premier of Alberta, rode the Stampede zip line on July 9, 2018.
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The video branded her as a bold, energetic leader — an image many thousands hold of her to this day.
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But that ride five years ago may be the highest she’ll ever fly in Calgary.
As Stampede opens this year, the UCP holds 49 seats compared to 38 for the NDP.
Premier Danielle Smith’s party took 52 per cent of the provincial popular vote on May 29. The NDP won 44 per cent.
Notley’s strong showing in Calgary itself — 14 of the city’s 26 seats — is a consolation prize in the larger context.
This was not the triumph Notley’s party expected after ruling in the polls for more than two years, and raising more money than the UCP in one fiscal quarter after another.
Notley is considering her future. It would be surprising if she decides to stay on for four years to fight another election.
She would face the prospect of losing her third election in a row after winning once. It’s not a retirement record any politician would covet.
She’ll probably resign at some point after shepherding her new caucus and preparing the party.
And she should. The NDP needs to soften its starkly negative image and build support in rural Alberta. Notley’s leadership is indelibly tied to both weak points.
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Since the election, the NDP has shown no sign of changing. This is still a hyper-aggressive Opposition that pumps out blasts at the government every day (sometimes, several times a day.)
When the UCP announced an $11.6-billion surplus for fiscal 2022-23, Notley said: “The UCP has been a fiscal train wreck and there is no sign of it slowing down. Now, they aren’t being honest with Albertans about the state of the books.”
That seemed wildly out of whack with what actually happened. The province recorded its largest surplus ever.
The NDP instinct to attack every time is baked in. The party is set up for much more of the same.
All MLAs have been assigned critic roles. Many are critics in one area and deputy critics in another. There are 12 more NDP critics than UCP ministries to criticize.
An Opposition’s job is to put facts and hard questions to government. Only the UCP would like Notley to entirely stop exposing and criticizing.
But the NDP’s full-time fury, coupled with intense personal attacks on Smith, turned many people off during the campaign. There’s little sense of balancing anger with optimism, or criticism with credit.
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The UCP doled out equally fierce attacks on Notley, of course. But they won, despite their own penchant for self-destruction.
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The UCP was born in scandal over its leadership race. Former premier Jason Kenney’s style and the bitter divide over pandemic measures split the party into factions.
After he was forced out, the campaign to replace him offered five sensible candidates, any of whom would have given the government a steady image. The members chose Smith, with her long record of kooky, ill-informed comments and theories.
But the UCP still won on May 29. They did it with attractive economic policies, the good luck of lush finances, canny softening of Smith’s image and her own considerable public skill.
If the NDP can’t prevail against a party that spent years trying to wreck itself, can it ever win again?
Surely it can. The NDP owns Edmonton and has strength in Calgary. There were many close races. The party can now build from a stronger base.
But it’s just as likely that the NDP will slowly deflate like a leftover campaign balloon.
That will happen, in my view, unless the party strikes a more positive tone, sticks to criticism that’s truly warranted, and finally appeals to large numbers of voters outside the big cities.
Somewhere in the large NDP caucus there may be a leader who can do all that. It’s probably not Notley, for all her undeniable achievements.
Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald.
Twitter: @DonBraid
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