IF THE AIADMK was seen as having been rushed into an alliance with the BJP in the tumultuous period after J Jayalalithaa’s death, when the national party promised a steadying hand, it is the AIADMK which has taken the call to exit now.
The remarks made by Tamil Nadu BJP leader K Annamalai might have been the final trigger for the split, but the AIADMK has been weighing its options for a while, with the BJP failing to break new ground in the state. The decision by the AIADMK to go separate ways is now more prompted by the exigencies of the 2026 Assembly polls, rather than the approaching 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Plus, the AIADMK has dropped enough hints that it still has a window open to the BJP, waiting for the latter to make the next move and, thus, reversing the power equation. A day after the separation, the AIADMK leadership gave strict orders to all senior leaders, including key party spokespersons, to avoid comments about the BJP for at least another week. A party leader said: “A decision was taken yesterday to wait and watch.”
Even when announcing the break with the BJP, the AIADMK was careful to direct its ire towards Annamalai and refrain from attacking Narendra Modi or Amit Shah.
At the same meeting, many leaders stressed the need to exit from the NDA alliance, saying this was needed to maintain the AIADMK’s “credibility” and retain the trust of its significant voting blocks, including Dalits, minorities, and women, who have felt alienated due to the AIADMK’s association with the BJP. Unlike in other states, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity is not a factor for voters in the state, and this would be especially true come the 2026 Assembly polls.
A senior leader said that having taken the decision well in time, the AIADMK has “an opportunity to recover and consolidate our historically solid support base, comprising primarily women and Dalits”.
The leader mentioned the consolidation of Dalit voters behind Thol Thirumavalavan’s VCK, a DMK ally, and Dr K Krishnaswamy’s Puthiya Tamizhagam party in recent years.
Sources said that the AIADMK is prepared for the fact that the rupture with the BJP will mean a setback in the near future, particularly the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. “If we had contested with the BJP in 2024, our Dalit and minority support base would have gone forever. Our move now enables us to reclaim our support base, which is essential for our political survival and success in 2026,” a leader said, adding that the AIADMK focus has to be Tamil Nadu. “The political climate in Delhi is secondary for us.”
Since the alliance with the BJP, the AIADMK has wrestled with the impression that it is controlled by the powerful big party. The split within the AIADMK, with V K Sasikala and nephew T T V Dhinakaran breaking away, and the power tussle with O Panneerselvam also allowed the BJP wiggle room to make its presence felt in the party.
Now firmly in control, former chief minister and AIADMK general secretary E Palaniswami has been asserting himself. He had also resisted pressure from the BJP to accommodate Sasikala, Dhinakaran and bitter rival O Panneerselvam.
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Another factor that would have influenced the AIADMK decision is the fear of further losing the Dravidian space to rival DMK. Even as its association with the BJP weakened the AIADMK on that front, the DMK has been consolidating by positioning itself as a counter to all that the national party represents.
So, even if a split between it and the BJP results in a division of the anti-DMK vote, thus helping the ruling party, the AIADMK sees gains for itself in the long run if it can reclaim its traditional vote bank.
The AIADMK is also gambling that several smaller Dravidian parties which are right now with the DMK might play the field now that the BJP is not in the picture. The Left parties and VCK, for example, currently DMK allies, have been long-standing partners of the AIADMK.
2021 Assembly polls
???? Vote share: DMK 38%, AIADMK 33%, BJP 3% (in alliance with AIADMK)
???? Seats: DMK 133 of 188 contested; AIADMK 66 of 191; BJP 4 of 20
???? Total: DMK alliance won 159 seats, AIADMK alliance 75
